YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ

CAN, Melih; Gümüş, Mehmet; Korpuz, Sencer; kamber, eren; AYDOĞMUŞ, Hacer YUMURTACI

YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ

Eren KAMBER, (Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi, Rafet Kayış Mühendislik Fakültesi, İşletme Mühendisliği Bölümü, Antalya, Türkiye)

Sencer KÖRPÜZ, (İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Endüstri Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Melih CAN, (Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi, Rafet Kayış Mühendislik Fakültesi, İşletme Mühendisliği Bölümü, Antalya, Türkiye)

Hacer YUMURTACI AYDOĞMUŞ, (Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi, Rafet Kayış Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Antalya, Türkiye)

Mehmet GÜMÜŞ (Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi, Rafet Kayış Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Antalya, Türkiye)

Endüstri Mühendisliği

10 2

Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 32 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 364 - 379 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 12-08-2022

YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ

Öz:

Günümüzün vazgeçilemez unsurlarından olan elektrik enerjisi için kısa dönemli elektrik tahminleri, son yıllarda yüksek öneme sahip konular arasında yer almaktadır. Elektrik üretimi ile talebin dengelenebilmesi için elektrik talep fiyatlarının doğru tahmin edilmesi önemlidir. Söz konusu denge kurulabildiği takdirde tüketicilere rekabetçi fiyatlar sunulabilmektedir. Elektrik talebinde doğru tahminler yapabilmek için literatürde bazı teknikler kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, söz konusu tekniklerden yapay sinir ağını (YSA) uzun kısa dönemli bellek (Long Short-Term Memory - LSTM) mimarisiyle çalıştırarak kısa süreli elektrik talep tahmininde bulunmaktır. YSA metodolojisinin uygulanmasıyla elde edilen sonuçlar kök ortalama kare hatası değerlerine göre zaman serisi analizi (ARIMA) ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, İspanya'nın 2015-2016 yılları arasındaki elektrik verileri tahminleme yapmak için kullanılmıştır. Elektrik enerjisi üretim ve tüketim verileri, İletim Hizmeti Operatörü (TSO) verilerini içeren ve açık erişimli bir portal olan ENTSOE'den toplanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelime:

SHORT TERM ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Öz:

Short term electricity forecasts preserve its importance in recent years. It is important to forecast electricity demand pricesly because of balancing power generation and demand. If a balance can be achieved between power generation and demand, competitive prices can be presented to the consumers. In order to make proper forecasts in electiricty demand, some techniques are being used related to literature. In this study, first goal was to make a short time electricity demand forecast by working artificial neural network (ANN) module with long short term memory (LSTM). After ANN methodology, results compared with time series analysis (ARIMA) by using root mean square error. In this context, Spain’s electricity data was used to make forecasts that was the time line between 2015 and 2016. Electrical energy generation and consumption data was collected from ENTSOE that is a public portal for Transmission Service Operator (TSO) data.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	kamber e, Korpuz S, CAN M, AYDOĞMUŞ H, Gümüş M (2021). YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. , 364 - 379.
Chicago	kamber eren,Korpuz Sencer,CAN Melih,AYDOĞMUŞ Hacer YUMURTACI,Gümüş Mehmet YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. (2021): 364 - 379.
MLA	kamber eren,Korpuz Sencer,CAN Melih,AYDOĞMUŞ Hacer YUMURTACI,Gümüş Mehmet YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. , 2021, ss.364 - 379.
AMA	kamber e,Korpuz S,CAN M,AYDOĞMUŞ H,Gümüş M YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. . 2021; 364 - 379.
Vancouver	kamber e,Korpuz S,CAN M,AYDOĞMUŞ H,Gümüş M YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. . 2021; 364 - 379.
IEEE	kamber e,Korpuz S,CAN M,AYDOĞMUŞ H,Gümüş M "YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ." , ss.364 - 379, 2021.
ISNAD	kamber, eren vd. "YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ". (2021), 364-379.

APA	kamber e, Korpuz S, CAN M, AYDOĞMUŞ H, Gümüş M (2021). YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. Endüstri Mühendisliği, 32(2), 364 - 379.
Chicago	kamber eren,Korpuz Sencer,CAN Melih,AYDOĞMUŞ Hacer YUMURTACI,Gümüş Mehmet YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. Endüstri Mühendisliği 32, no.2 (2021): 364 - 379.
MLA	kamber eren,Korpuz Sencer,CAN Melih,AYDOĞMUŞ Hacer YUMURTACI,Gümüş Mehmet YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. Endüstri Mühendisliği, vol.32, no.2, 2021, ss.364 - 379.
AMA	kamber e,Korpuz S,CAN M,AYDOĞMUŞ H,Gümüş M YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. Endüstri Mühendisliği. 2021; 32(2): 364 - 379.
Vancouver	kamber e,Korpuz S,CAN M,AYDOĞMUŞ H,Gümüş M YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ. Endüstri Mühendisliği. 2021; 32(2): 364 - 379.
IEEE	kamber e,Korpuz S,CAN M,AYDOĞMUŞ H,Gümüş M "YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ." Endüstri Mühendisliği, 32, ss.364 - 379, 2021.
ISNAD	kamber, eren vd. "YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARINA DAYALI KISA DÖNEMLİ ELEKTRİK YÜKÜ TAHMİNİ". Endüstri Mühendisliği 32/2 (2021), 364-379.