Yıl: 2023 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 663 Sayfa Aralığı: 55 - 78 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 17-05-2023

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH

Öz:
This study investigates the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth with a primary concern of focusing on the long-run effects. It uses the panel ARDL-PMG approach as an econometric methodology for 11 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies from 1995 to 2019. The findings from the empirical analysis indicate a significant long-run relationship between the two mac-roeconomic variables; however, the relevant relationship is estimated negatively. The findings for the short-run effects for the whole panel and country-specific estimations also confirm that higher govern-ment expenditure results in a statistically significant decline in real GDP per capita. Thus, the findings of this study do not empirically validate the Keynesian theory for 11 CEE economies covered in the research over the 1995-2019 period.
Anahtar Kelime:

ORTA VE DOĞU AVRUPA EKONOMİLERİNDE KAMU HARCAMALARI VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME: PANEL ARDL YAKLAŞIMI

Öz:
Bu çalışma, kamu harcamaları ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi, uzun dönem analizini ön planda tutarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada ekonometrik yöntem olarak panel ARDL-PMG yaklaşımı kullanıl-makta olup Orta ve Doğu Avrupa (ODA) ekonomileri için 1995-2019 arası dönem araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgulara göre iki makroekonomik değişken arasında uzun dönemli ve anlamlı bir ilişki mev-cut olmakla birlikte, bu ilişkinin negatif olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Kısa döneme ilişkin hem tüm panel hem de ülke bazlı ulaşılan bulgular da kamu harcamalarında meydana gelen artışın kişi başına düşen reel GSYİH’de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı azalmaya neden olduğunu desteklemektedir. Böyle-likle bu çalışma ile 11 ODA ülkesinde, 1995-2019 yılları arası dönemde Keynesyen teorinin ampirik olarak geçerli olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • ABAR, H.; ERKAL, G. ve Ö. YILMAZ; (2014), "Kamu Harcama Çeşitleri ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Gelişmiş, Gelişmekte Olan ve Az Gelişmiş Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi", Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, XXXIII(2), ss. 127–146.
  • AHUJA, D. and D. PANDIT; (2020), "Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Developing Countries, FIIB Business Review, 9(3), pp. 228–236. https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520938901
  • ALEXIOU, C.; (2009), "Government Spending and Economic Growth : Econometric Evidence from the South Eastern Europe (SEE)", Journal of Economic and Social Research, 11(1), pp. 1–16.
  • ASTERIOU, D. and V. MONASTIRIOTIS; (2004), "What Do Unions Do at the Large Scale? Macro-Economic Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries", Journal of Applied Economics, 7(1), pp. 27–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2004.12040602
  • ATTIAOUI, I.; TOUMI, H.; AMMOURI, B. and I. GARGOURI; (2017), "Causality Links Among Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Panel ARDL-PMG Approach", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(14), pp. 13036–13048. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8850-7
  • BARLAS, A. W.; (2020), "The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Afghanistan", Journal of Economics and Business, 3(2), pp. 729-733. https://doi.org/ 10.31014/aior.1992.03.02.234
  • BARRO, R. J.; (1989), "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government", NBER Working Paper Series, No. 2855.
  • BARRO, R. J.; (1990), "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth", Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. S103–S105.
  • BARRO, R. J.; (1991), "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), pp. 407-443.
  • BREITUNG, J.; (2001), "The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data", B. H. BALTAGI (Ed.), Volume 15: Advances in Econometrics; Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, JAI Press: Amsterdam, The Netherlands, , pp. 161–177.
  • COMAN (NUŢĂ), A. C.; LUPU, D. and F. M. NUŢĂ; (2022), "The Impact of Public Education Spending on Economic Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: An ARDL Approach with Structural Break", Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2086147
  • DOMBI, Á.; (2013a), "Economic Growth and Development in Central and Eastern Europe after the Transformation", Public Finance Quarterly, 58(4), pp. 452–468.
  • DOMBI, Á.; (2013b), "The Sources of Economic Growth and Relative Backwardness in the Central Eastern European Countries between 1995 and 2007", Post-Communist Economies, 25(4), pp. 425–447.
  • EUROSTAT; (2022), General Government Expenditure by Function Dataset, https://ec.eu-ropa.eu/eurostat/en/, 09.09.2022
  • GHALI, K. H.; (1999), "Government Size and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis", Applied Economics, 31(8), pp. 975–987.
  • GUMUS, E., and R. MAMMADOV; (2019), "Real Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the Southern Caucasus Countries: A Panel Data Analysis", Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 22(2), pp. 20–34.
  • HAUSMAN, J. A.; (1978), "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, 46(6), pp. 1251-1271.
  • HENREKSON, M.; (1993), "Wagners Law - a Spurious Relationship?", Public Finance, 48(2), pp. 406–415.
  • KOLLURI, B. R.; PANIK, M. J. ve M. S. WAHAB; (2000), "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Countries", Applied Economics, 32(8), pp. 1059–1068.
  • LAHIRUSHAN, K. P. K. S. ve W.G.V. GUNASEKARA; (2015), "The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Study of Asian Countries", World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences2, 9(9), pp. 3152–3160.
  • LAMARTINA, S. and A. ZAGHINI; (2011), "Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner’s Law in OECD Countries", German Economic Review, 12(2), pp. 149–164.
  • LUPU, D.; PETRISOR, M. B.; BERCU, A. and M. TOFAN; (2018), "The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(3), pp. 552–570.
  • MASCA, S. G.; NISTOR, S. and V.L. VAIDEAN; (2019), "Do Government Arrangements Matter for CEE Countries’ Growth? A Two-Piece Puzzle Perspective", Applied Economics Letters, 26(19), pp. 1612–1626.
  • NIKOLOVA, V. and A. ANGELOV; (2021), "Causality Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croaita and Greece", M. A. de Silva Costa; A. Nedzhad and D. Lucic (Eds.), 68th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development Book of Proceedings - Aveiro, 24-25 May, 2021, pp. 270–278. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203004937
  • NYASHA, S. and N. M. ODHIAMBO; (2019), "The Impact of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature", Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 19(2), pp. 81–101.
  • PESARAN, M. H. and Y. SHIN; (1999), "An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis", Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, pp. 371–413. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
  • PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y. and R. P. SMITH; (1999), "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), pp. 621–634.
  • PESARAN, H. and R. SMITH; (1995), "Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogenous Panels", Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), pp. 79–113.
  • RAM, R.; (1986), "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data", American Economic Review, 76(1), pp. 191–203.
  • RAMOS-HERRERA, M. D. C., and M. A. PRATS; (2020), "Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model", Sustainability, 12(20), pp. 1–14. TABAN, S.; (2010) "An Examination of the Government Spending and Economic Growth Nexus for Turkey Using the Bound Test Approach", International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 48(1), pp. 184-193.
  • WAGNER, A. (1958). "Three Extracts on Public Finance", R. A. MUSGRAVE and A. T. PEACOCK (Eds.), Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, New York, MacMillan, pp. 1-15.
  • WORLDBANK; (2022), Dataset, World Development Indicators (WDI), https://databank. worldbank. org/ source/world-development-indicators, 09.09.2022
  • WU, S. Y.; TANG J. H. and E. S. LIN; (2010), "The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: How Sensitive to the Level of Development?", Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(6), pp. 804–817.
  • YERDELEN-TATOĞLU, F.; (2018), Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı, 2. Baskı, Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
APA GORKEY S (2023). GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. , 55 - 78.
Chicago GORKEY SELDA GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. (2023): 55 - 78.
MLA GORKEY SELDA GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. , 2023, ss.55 - 78.
AMA GORKEY S GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. . 2023; 55 - 78.
Vancouver GORKEY S GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. . 2023; 55 - 78.
IEEE GORKEY S "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH." , ss.55 - 78, 2023.
ISNAD GORKEY, SELDA. "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH". (2023), 55-78.
APA GORKEY S (2023). GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 0(663), 55 - 78.
Chicago GORKEY SELDA GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi 0, no.663 (2023): 55 - 78.
MLA GORKEY SELDA GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, vol.0, no.663, 2023, ss.55 - 78.
AMA GORKEY S GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi. 2023; 0(663): 55 - 78.
Vancouver GORKEY S GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi. 2023; 0(663): 55 - 78.
IEEE GORKEY S "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH." Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 0, ss.55 - 78, 2023.
ISNAD GORKEY, SELDA. "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: A PANEL ARDL APPROACH". Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi 663 (2023), 55-78.