Yıl: 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 20 - 40 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.54452/jrb.1027577 İndeks Tarihi: 06-09-2023

ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL

Öz:
Stock prices may display predictable patterns around major political events, particularly in emerging market economies where political risk is a key component of asset risk premiums. One distinct event that would be expected to result in an abrupt increase in political risk is elections. Motivated by this notion, we study the returns for a set of indicator and sectoral indices of Borsa Istanbul stocks and the U.S. Dollar–Turkish Lira exchange rate around political elections held in Turkey over 2001–2020. Our tests reveal an accumulation of economically and statistically significant positive abnormal returns for all Borsa Istanbul stock indices and negative abnormal returns for the U.S. Dollar–Turkish Lira exchange rate over a window that starts as early as a month prior to the election date and extends for two weeks into the post-election period, with the effect being particularly strong in the week immediately following the election. Consistent with a political risk-based story, volatility of index returns starts increasing over the same period and plateaus out at a level that is roughly one-and-a half to two-folds greater than its pre-election period average.
Anahtar Kelime: Political risk elections stock market abnormal returns Borsa Istanbul

HALK OYLAMALARI VE HİSSE PİYASASI GETİRİLERİ: BORSA İSTANBUL’DAN BULGULAR

Öz:
Hissesenedifiyatlarının,özelliklesiyasiriskinbeklenenriskprimlerininönemlibirbileşeniolduğugelişmekte olan ekonomilerde, önemli siyasi olaylar etrafında öngörülebilir kalıplar göstermesi beklenebilir. Siyasi riskte belirgin bir artışa yol açabilecek önemli olaylardan biri de seçimlerdir. Bu makalede,bu düşünceden yola çıkılarak Borsa İstanbul gösterge ve sektörel endekslerinin ve Amerikan Doları-Türk Lirası döviz kurunun 2001–2020 yılları arasında Türkiye’de gerçekleştirilen seçimler etrafındaki davranışı incelenmiştir. Testlerimiz seçim tarihlerinden bir ay önce başlayan ve seçim sonrasında iki hafta devam eden bir pencerede, ağırlıklaseçimgününütakipedenhaftadaolmaküzere,BorsaIstanbulendekslerindeekonomikveistatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir kümülatif pozitif anormal getiri, Amerikan Doları-Türk Lirası döviz kurunda ise negatif bir kümülatif anormal getiri ortaya koymaktadır. Siyasi risk temelli bir hikaye ile tutarlı olarak, günlük endeks getirilerindeki oynaklığın aynı periyot içerisinde artmaya başladığı ve seçim öncesi dönemdeki ortalamasından kabaca bir buçuk ila iki kat daha yüksek bir seviyede doyuma ulaştığı gözlemlenmiştir.
Anahtar Kelime: Siyasi risk seçimler pay piyasası anormal getiriler Borsa Istanbul

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA Kayacetin V (2023). ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. , 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
Chicago Kayacetin Volkan ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. (2023): 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
MLA Kayacetin Volkan ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. , 2023, ss.20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
AMA Kayacetin V ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. . 2023; 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
Vancouver Kayacetin V ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. . 2023; 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
IEEE Kayacetin V "ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL." , ss.20 - 40, 2023. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
ISNAD Kayacetin, Volkan. "ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL". (2023), 20-40. https://doi.org/10.54452/jrb.1027577
APA Kayacetin V (2023). ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. Journal of research in business (online), 8(1), 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
Chicago Kayacetin Volkan ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. Journal of research in business (online) 8, no.1 (2023): 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
MLA Kayacetin Volkan ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. Journal of research in business (online), vol.8, no.1, 2023, ss.20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
AMA Kayacetin V ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. Journal of research in business (online). 2023; 8(1): 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
Vancouver Kayacetin V ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL. Journal of research in business (online). 2023; 8(1): 20 - 40. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
IEEE Kayacetin V "ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL." Journal of research in business (online), 8, ss.20 - 40, 2023. 10.54452/jrb.1027577
ISNAD Kayacetin, Volkan. "ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL". Journal of research in business (online) 8/1 (2023), 20-40. https://doi.org/10.54452/jrb.1027577