The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method
Yıl: 2019 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 54 - 65 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 İndeks Tarihi: 22-04-2020
The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method
Öz: In this study, it was aimed to determine the most suitable time series models with Box-Jenkins method, which was the most widely used in prediction studies. Export and import values were predicted by 2020 with the most suitable models. The data used in this study were obtained from the Turkey Statistical Institute. Data were monthly data covering from January 2003 to December 2014. Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) criteria were taken into consideration when selecting the best Box-Jenkins models. Also, in order to test the success of forecasting of the models, Root mean Error Square (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used.As a result of the analyzes, it was determined that the most suitable models for export and import data were ARIMA (2,1,0) (0,0,1)12 and ARIMA(3,1,2)(1,0,1)12. It was predicted that the rate of exports meeting imports in paper and paper products of Turkey will be approximately 0.86 in 2020.
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Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | ERSEN N, AKYÜZ I, BAYRAM B (2019). The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. , 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| Chicago | ERSEN Nadir,AKYÜZ ILKER,BAYRAM Bahadir Cagri The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. (2019): 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| MLA | ERSEN Nadir,AKYÜZ ILKER,BAYRAM Bahadir Cagri The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. , 2019, ss.54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| AMA | ERSEN N,AKYÜZ I,BAYRAM B The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. . 2019; 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| Vancouver | ERSEN N,AKYÜZ I,BAYRAM B The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. . 2019; 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| IEEE | ERSEN N,AKYÜZ I,BAYRAM B "The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method." , ss.54 - 65, 2019. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| ISNAD | ERSEN, Nadir vd. "The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method". (2019), 54-65. https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| APA | ERSEN N, AKYÜZ I, BAYRAM B (2019). The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science, 7(1), 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| Chicago | ERSEN Nadir,AKYÜZ ILKER,BAYRAM Bahadir Cagri The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science 7, no.1 (2019): 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| MLA | ERSEN Nadir,AKYÜZ ILKER,BAYRAM Bahadir Cagri The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science, vol.7, no.1, 2019, ss.54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| AMA | ERSEN N,AKYÜZ I,BAYRAM B The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science. 2019; 7(1): 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| Vancouver | ERSEN N,AKYÜZ I,BAYRAM B The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science. 2019; 7(1): 54 - 65. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| IEEE | ERSEN N,AKYÜZ I,BAYRAM B "The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method." Eurasian Journal of Forest Science, 7, ss.54 - 65, 2019. 10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
| ISNAD | ERSEN, Nadir vd. "The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products in Turkey using Box-Jenkins method". Eurasian Journal of Forest Science 7/1 (2019), 54-65. https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.502397 |
