An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade

Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 4 Sayfa Aralığı: 93 - 112 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.12658/M0637 İndeks Tarihi: 31-05-2022

An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade

Öz:
This study analyzes how bilateral trade between Turkey and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries has been affected by the immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries. The main objective is to unveil which channels of foreign trade are affected by immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries. Most empirical studies examining the static relationship between international migration and bilateral foreign trade take advantage of panel gravity models. This paper outlines a new approach on using a dynamic panel gravity model to analyze the dynamic relationship between international migration and bilateral foreign trade. This study tests the impact of immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries on bilateral foreign trade between countries from 2000-2016 for the first time using the system GMM estimation method. The evidence from this study indicates the relationship between bilateral foreign trade and immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries from Turkey to have complementarity. In addition, this study’s findings indicate immigration flows from Turkey to OECD countries to contribute to the exports from immigrants’ host countries and to increase Turkey’s imports. The results show these immigrant flows to be effective by means of networking channels in terms of foreign trade
Anahtar Kelime:

-

Öz:
Bu çalışma, Türkiye ile OECD ülkeleri arasındaki ikili ticaretin Türkiye’den OECD ülkesine giden göçmen akımlarından nasıl etkilendiğini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın temel hedefi, Türkiye’den 23 OECD ülkesine giden göçmenlerin dış ticareti hangi kanallar ile etkilediğini ortaya koymaktır. Uluslararası göç ve ikili dış ticaret arasındaki statik ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla uygulamalı analizler yapan çalışmaların büyük bir kısmı, panel çekim modellerinin avantajlarından faydalanmışlardır. Ancak biz uluslararası göç ile ikili dış ticaret arasındaki dinamik ilişkiyi analiz etmek için dinamik panel yerçekimi modelini kullanmayı tercih ettik. Bu manada, literatürde daha önce yapılmamış biçimiyle, 2000-2016 yılları arasında Türkiye’den OECD ülkelerine yaşanan göç akımlarının ülkeler arası ikili dış ticaret üzerindeki etkisi dinamik olarak sistem GMM tahmin yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Ülkeler arasındaki ikili dış ticaret ilişkisi ve Türkiye’den OECD ülkelerine giden göçmen akımları arasındaki ilişkinin tamamlayıcı nitelikte olduğu sonucuna erişilmiştir. Buna ek olarak, Türkiye’den OECD ülkelerine giden göç akımlarının, göçmenlerin sonradan göç etmiş oldukları ülkelerin ihracatını artırdığı, ihracatına katkı sağladığı, Türkiye’nin ithalatını artırdığı elde edilen sonuçlar arasındadır. Çalışmanın analiz bulguları göstermektedir ki; OECD ülkelerine Türkiye’den giden göçmen akımları, Türkiye ve OECD ülkeleri arasındaki karşılıklı dış ticareti network (bilgi) kanalı ile etkilemektedir
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Amemiya, T., & MaCurdy, T. E. (1986). Instrumental-variable estimation of an error-components model. Econometrica, 54(4), 869–880.
  • Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for gravity equation. American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116.
  • Anderson, T. W., & Hasio, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18, 47–82.
  • Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 2(58), 277–297.
  • Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components model. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.
  • Bacarreza, G., & Ehrlich, J. C. L. (2006). The impact of migration on foreign trade: A developing country approach. Latin American Journal of Economic Development, 6, 125–146.
  • Bellino, A., & Celi, G. (2016). The migration-trade nexus in presence of vertical and horizontal product differentiation, Discussion Paper: 137. University of Foggia.
  • Benedictis, L., & Vicarelli, C. (2005). Trade potentials in gravity panel data models. Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, 5(1), 1935–1682.
  • Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 1435–153
  • Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143.
  • Bond, S., Hoeffler, A., & Temple, J. (2001). GMM estimation of empirical growth models. Economics Papers from Economics Group. Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  • Breusch, T., Mizon, G., & Schmidt, P. (1989). Efficient estimation using panel data. Econometrica, 57(3), 695–700.
  • Combes, P., Lafourcade, M., & Mayer, T. (2002). Can business and social networks explain the border effect puzzle? CEPII Working Paper, 2.
  • Deardorff , A. V. (1998). Determinants of bilateral trade: Does gravity work in a neoclassical world? In J. frankel (Ed.), The regionalization of the world economy. University of Chicago Press.
  • Dunlevy, J. A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (1999). The impact of immigration on American import trade in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Journal of Economic History, 59(4), 1043–1062.
  • Dunlevy, J. A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (2001). The pro-trade effect of immigration on American exports during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. IZA Discussion Paper: 375.
  • Eichegreen, B., & Irwin, D. A. (1996). The role of history in bilateral trade flow. NBER Working Paper Series.
  • Faustino, H. C., & Leitão, N. C. (2008). Immigration and trade in Portugal: A static and dynamic panel data analysis. Working paper, ISSN No: 0874-4548. ISEG School of Economics and Management, Technical University of Lisbon.
  • Feenstra, R., & Kee, H. L. (2008). Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity, Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 500–518.
  • Girma, S., & Yu, Z. (2002). The link between immigration and trade: evidence from the United Kingdom. Review of World Economics, 138(1), 115–130.
  • Gould, D. M. (1994). Immigrant links to the home country: Empirical implications for US bilateral trade flows. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 76(2), 302–316.
  • Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 50(4), 1029–1054.
  • Head, K., & Ries, J. (1998). Immigration and trade creation: Econometric evidence from Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 31, 47–62.
  • Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., & Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica, 56(6), 1371–1395.
  • Iranzo, S., & Peri, G. (2009). Migration and trade: Theory with an application to the Eastern–Western European integration. Journal of International Economics, 79(1), 1–19.
  • Javorcik, B., Ozden, C., Spatareanu, M., & Neagu, C. (2011). Migrant networks and foreign direct investment. Journal of Development Economics, 94(2), 231–241.
  • Markusen, J. (1983). Factor movements and commodity trade as complements. Journal of International Economics, 14(3-4), 341–356.
  • Mundell, R. (1957). International trade and factor mobility. The American Economic Review, 47, 321–335.
  • Özekicioğlu, H., & Soyyiğit, S. (2019). Dış ticaret ve göç ilişkisi üzerine bir çekim modeli analizi: Almanya örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 60, 125–143. doi: 10.26650/JECS2019-0015.
  • Rauch, J. E. (1991). Reconciling the pattern of trade with the pattern of migration. American Economic Review, 81, 775–796.
  • Rauch, J. E., & Tridade, V. (2002). Ethnic Chinese networks in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1), 116–130.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1949). International factor-price equalization once again. Economic Journal, 59, 181–197.
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. New York, NY: Twentieth Century Fund. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/16826
  • Wagner, D., Head, K., & Ries, J. (2002). Immigration and the trade of provinces. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(5), 507–525.
  • Wong, K. (1986). Are international trade and factor mobility substitutes? Journal of International Economics, 21(1-2), 25–34.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2016). Panel veri ekonometrisi (3rd ed.). Beta.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). İleri panel veri analizi (3rd ed.). Beta.
  • Zarzosoa, I. M., Felicitas, N-L. D., & Horsewood, N. (2009). Are regional trading agreements beneficial? Static and dynamic panel gravity models. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, 46–65.
APA Aksöz Yılmaz H, İncekara A (2021). An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. , 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
Chicago Aksöz Yılmaz Hande,İncekara Ahmet An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. (2021): 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
MLA Aksöz Yılmaz Hande,İncekara Ahmet An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. , 2021, ss.93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
AMA Aksöz Yılmaz H,İncekara A An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. . 2021; 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
Vancouver Aksöz Yılmaz H,İncekara A An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. . 2021; 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
IEEE Aksöz Yılmaz H,İncekara A "An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade." , ss.93 - 112, 2021. 10.12658/M0637
ISNAD Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande - İncekara, Ahmet. "An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade". (2021), 93-112. https://doi.org/10.12658/M0637
APA Aksöz Yılmaz H, İncekara A (2021). An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. İnsan & Toplum, 11(4), 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
Chicago Aksöz Yılmaz Hande,İncekara Ahmet An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. İnsan & Toplum 11, no.4 (2021): 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
MLA Aksöz Yılmaz Hande,İncekara Ahmet An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. İnsan & Toplum, vol.11, no.4, 2021, ss.93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
AMA Aksöz Yılmaz H,İncekara A An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. İnsan & Toplum. 2021; 11(4): 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
Vancouver Aksöz Yılmaz H,İncekara A An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade. İnsan & Toplum. 2021; 11(4): 93 - 112. 10.12658/M0637
IEEE Aksöz Yılmaz H,İncekara A "An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade." İnsan & Toplum, 11, ss.93 - 112, 2021. 10.12658/M0637
ISNAD Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande - İncekara, Ahmet. "An Analysis of the Dynamic Panel Gravity Model:e E ect of Immigration Flows from Turkey to OECD Countries on Foreign Trade". İnsan & Toplum 11/4 (2021), 93-112. https://doi.org/10.12658/M0637