THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES

TELATAR, OSMAN MURAT

doi:10.18092/ulikidince.1124266

THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES

Osman Murat TELATAR (Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Trabzon, Türkiye)

Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi

4 0

Yıl: 2022 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 36 Sayfa Aralığı: 1 - 20 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266 İndeks Tarihi: 21-09-2022

THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES

Öz:

The budget deficit causing an increase in the current account deficit is named twin deficits. In addition, the budget and current account balances represent the internal and external balance of the economy. As in many developed and developing countries, revealing the relationship between internal and external imbalances in the Turkish economy in terms of determining economic policies is very important. Most of the studies on twin deficits in the literature are based on analyzes with linear models. The aim of this study, unlike other studies in the literature, is to examine the relationship between the budget and current account balance in the Turkish economy with non-linear time series analysis. For this purpose, nonlinear unit root and cointegration tests were applied to the data covering the period 1994-2021. The findings show that the negative reverse causality hypothesis is valid instead of the twin deficits hypothesis in the Turkish economy in the analyzed period. Accordingly, there is a negative relationship from the current account balance to the budget balance in both the long and short run.

Anahtar Kelime: Budget Balance Current Account Balance Nonlinear Unit Root Test Nonlinear Cointegration Test STAR-ARDL Model

İKİZ AÇIKLAR MI YOKSA NEGATİF TERS NEDENSELLİK Mİ? TÜRKİYE BÜTÇE VE CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGELERİ ÜZERİNE DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN BİR YAKLAŞIM

Öz:

Bütçe açığının cari işlemler açığında artışa neden olması ikiz açıklar olarak adlandırılır. Ayrıca bütçe ve cari işlemler dengeleri ekonominin iç ve dış dengesini de temsil etmektedir. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan birçok ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye ekonomisinde de iç ve dış dengesizlikler arasındaki ilişkinin ortaya konulması ekonomik politikaların belirlenmesi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Literatürdeki ikiz açıklarla ilgili çalışmaların çok büyük bir kısmı doğrusal modellerle yapılan analizlere dayanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak, Türkiye ekonomisinde bütçe ve cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi doğrusal olmayan zaman serileri analizi ile incelemektir. Bu amaçla 1994-2021 dönemini kapsayan verilere doğrusal olmayan birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, incelen dönemde Türkiye ekonomisinde ikiz açıklar hipotezi yerine negatif ters nedensellik hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre hem uzun hem de ksa dönemde cari işlemler dengesinden bütçe dengesine doğru negatif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

Abell, J. D. (1990). Twin Deficits during the 1980s: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1), 81-96.
Akbostancı, E. and Tunç, G. İ. (2002). Turkish Twin Deficits: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance. ERC Working Papers, 01/06, 1-18.
Aksu, H. and Başar, S. (2005). İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi’nin Türkiye Açısından Araştırılması. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 20(234), 95-113.
Altıntaş, H. and Taban, S. (2010). Türkiye’de İkiz Açık Sorunu ve Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi: ARDL Yaklaşımı ve Nedensellik Araştırması. Erişim Adresi http://web.inonu.edu.tr/~ozal.congress/pdf/101.pdf.
Antonakakis, N., Cunado, J., Gupta, R. and Segnon, M. (2019). Revisiting the twin deficits hypothesis: a quantile cointegration analysis over the period 1791-2013. Journal of Applied Economics, 22(1), 117-131.
Bachmann, D. D. (1992). Why Is the U. S. Current Account Deficit so Large? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions. Southern Economic Journal, 59(2), 232-240.
Baharumshah, A. Z. and Lau, E. (2005). Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach. International Finance, 0504002, 1-34.
Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E. and Khalid A. M. (2006). Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis using VARs and Variance Decomposition. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 11(3), 331-354.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Gelan, A. (2006). Testing the PPP in the nonlinear STAR Framework: Evidence from Africa. Economics Bulletin, 6(17), 1-15.
Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. and Klaassen, F. (2008). The effects of Public Spending on Trade Balances in the European Union. Journal of the European Economic Association, 6, 414- 423.
Bernheim, D. B. (1988). Budget Deficits and The Balance of Trade. Erişim Adresi http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10935.pdf.
Bhat, J. A. and Sharma, N. K. (2018). The twin-deficit hypothesis: revisiting Indian economy in a nonlinear framework. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 10(3), 386-405.
Bilman, M. E. (2021). Are Budget and Current Account Deficits Twins in Turkey? Evidence from Residual-based Fourier Cointegration and Fourier Causality Analyses. Sosyoekonomi, 29(49), 199-215.
Bussière, M., Fratzscher, M. and Müller, G. J. (2004). Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries: An Intertemporal Approach. ECB Working Paper Series, 311, 1-38.
Chang, J. and Hsu, Z. (2009). Causality Relationships between the Twin Deficits in the Regional Economy. Erişim Adresi http://econ.ccu.edu.tw/2009/conference/2B3.pdf.
Çatık, A. N., Gök, B. and Akseki, U. (2015). A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey. Economic Systems, 39, 181-196.
Daly, V. and Siddiki J. U. (2009). The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shift. Applied Economics Letters, 16, 1155-1164.
Darrat, A. F. (1988). Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?. Southern Economic Journal, 54(4), 879-887.
Dewald, W. G. and Ulan, M. (1990). The twin deficit illusion. Cato Journal, 9(3), 689-707.
Dibooğlu, S. (1997). Accounting for U.S. Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics, 29(6), 787-793.
Dufrénot, G., Mathieu, L., Mignon, V. and Péguin-Feissolle, A. (2006). Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from nonlinear cointegration. Applied Economics, 38, 203-229.
Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometrics Time Series, 3th. Ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Enders, W. and Lee, B. (1990). Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72(3), 373-381.
Günaydın, İ. (2004). Bütçe ve Ticaret Açıkları Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Uygulaması. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15(52-53), 143-259.
Hatemi, A. J. and Shukur, G. (2002). Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the U.S.. Journal of Applied Statistics, 29(6), 817-824.
İyidoğan, P. V. (2011). İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Deneyimi. Doktora Tezi, Hacattepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
Kalou S. and Paleologou, S. (2012). The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 230-241.
Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and Snell, A. (2003a). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112:359-379.
Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and Snell, A. (2003b). Testing for cointegration in nonlinear STAR error correction models. University of London Queen Mary Economics Working Paper, 497:1-24.
Kasa, K. (1994). Finite Horizons and the Twin Deficits. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 3, 19-28.
Kim, C. and Kim D. (2006). Does Korea have twin deficits?. Applied Economics Letters, 13, 675-680.
Kim, S. and Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficits or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S.. Journal of International Economics, 74, 362-383.
Kouassi, E., Mougoue ́, M. and Kymn, K. O. (2004). Causality tests of the relationship between the twin deficits. Empirical Economics, 29, 503-525. Kuştepeli, Y. R. (2001). An Empirical Investigation of the Feldstein Chain for Turkey. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2(1), 99-108.
Mallick, L., Behera, S. R. and, Murthy, R. V. R. (2021). Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 24, e00219.
Mankiw, G. N. (2009). Makroekonomi (Çev. Ömer Faruk Çolak). Ankara: Eflatun Yayınevi.
Marmer, V. (2008). Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Spurious Forecasts. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 1-27.
Misztal, P. (2012). The link between government budget deficits and current account in the Baltic countries. MPRA Paper, 40784, 1-17, Erişim Adresi http://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/40784/1/MPRA_paper_40784.pdf.
Murshed, M. S. (1997). Macro Economics for Open Economies. London: The Dryden Press.
Pötscher, B. M. and Pruch, I. R. (1997). Dynamic Nonlinear Econometrics Models: Asymptotic Theory. Berlin: Springer.
Puah, C., Lau, E. and Tan, K. L. (2006). Budget-current account deficits nexus in Malaysia. Erişim Adresi http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37677/1/MPRA_paper_37677.pdf.
Roubini, N. (1988). Current Account and Budget Deficits in an Intertemporal Model of Consumption and Taxation Smoothing: A Solution to The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle. NBER Working Paper Series, 2773, 1-52.
Salvatore, D. (2006) Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28, 701-712.
Summers, L. H. (1988). Tax Policy and International Competitiveness. Erişim Adresi http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7931.pdf.
Telatar, O. M. (2013). Türkiye’de İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Geçerliliği. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
Turan, K. and Karakaş, M. (2017). İkiz Açıklar Hipotezine Doğrusal Olmayan Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Maliye Dergisi, 173, 211-227.
Utkulu, U. (2003). Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları Gerçekten İkiz mi? Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Bulguları, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(1), 45-61.
Vamvoukas, G. A. (1999). The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece. Applied Economics, 31, 1093-1100.
Yılmaz, H. and Tütüncü, A. (2020). Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı-Cari Açık İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testi (1975-2017). Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 15(1), 47-60.
Zengin, A. (2000). The Twin Deficits Hypothesis (The Turkish Case). First International Joint Symposium on Business Administration, Gökçeada-Çanakkale: 217-228.

APA	TELATAR O (2022). THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. , 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
Chicago	TELATAR OSMAN MURAT THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. (2022): 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
MLA	TELATAR OSMAN MURAT THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. , 2022, ss.1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
AMA	TELATAR O THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. . 2022; 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
Vancouver	TELATAR O THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. . 2022; 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
IEEE	TELATAR O "THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES." , ss.1 - 20, 2022. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
ISNAD	TELATAR, OSMAN MURAT. "THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES". (2022), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1124266

APA	TELATAR O (2022). THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 0(36), 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
Chicago	TELATAR OSMAN MURAT THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi 0, no.36 (2022): 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
MLA	TELATAR OSMAN MURAT THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, vol.0, no.36, 2022, ss.1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
AMA	TELATAR O THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2022; 0(36): 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
Vancouver	TELATAR O THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2022; 0(36): 1 - 20. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
IEEE	TELATAR O "THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES." Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 0, ss.1 - 20, 2022. 10.18092/ulikidince.1124266
ISNAD	TELATAR, OSMAN MURAT. "THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi 36 (2022), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1124266