Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Şeref Can SERİN, (Harran Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, Maliye Bölümü, Şanlıurfa, Türkiye)
İlter ÜNLÜKAPLAN (Çukurova Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, Kamu Yönetimi Bölümü, Adana, Türkiye)
Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
4 4
Yıl: 2022 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 264 - 287 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380 İndeks Tarihi: 25-12-2022

Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Öz:
An essential part of the ongoing normative debate on how to design the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices argues that counter-cyclical fiscal policies based on the Keynesian view should be preferred to pro-cyclical practices because of their stabilizing effects. In this context, the empirical analysis of the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is an area that is up to date, first introduced by Gavin and Perotti (1997). The common opinion of empirical studies is that counter-cyclical practices are applied in developed economies; pro-cycle practices are more common in developing and underdeveloped economies. This study examines the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices in Turkiye from 1990-2020 with the ARDL method. As a result of the study, findings were obtained that Turkiye's fiscal policy practices have a counter-cyclical structure but lose its fiscal space for a maneuver. The robustness tests also support the findings.
Anahtar Kelime: Business Cycle Fiscal Policy Time Series Analysis

Maliye Politikası Çevrim Yanlısı Mı Yoksa Çevrim Karşıtı mı? Türkiye için ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Öz:
Maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrimsel hareketlerinin nasıl tasarlanması gerektiği konusunda süregelen normatif tartışmaların önemli bir kısmı, Keynesyen görüş temelli çevrim-karşıtı maliye politikalarının istikrarlandırıcı etkileri nedeniyle çevrim-yanlısı uygulamalara tercih edilmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, maliye politikasının çevrimsel davranışlarının ampirik analizi ilk defa Gavin ve Perotti (1997) tarafından ortaya konulmuş, güncelliğini koruyan bir alanıdır. Bu konudaki ampirik çalışmaların ortak kanısı, çevrim- karşıtı uygulamalara gelişmiş ekonomilerde; çevrim yanlısı uygulamalara ise gelişmekte ve az gelişmiş ekonomilerde daha sık rastlanıldığı yönündedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de ihtiyari maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrimsel hareketlerini 1990-2020 dönemi için ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda Türkiye’de maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrim-karşıtı ancak giderek mali manevra alanını kaybeden bir yapıya sahip olduğuna dair bulgular elde edilmiştir. Yapılan sağlamlık sınamaları da elde edilen bulguları desteklemektedir.
Anahtar Kelime: İş Çevrimi Maliye Politikası Zaman Serisi Analizi

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA Serin Ş, ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ (2022). Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. , 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Chicago Serin Şeref Can,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İLTER Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. (2022): 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
MLA Serin Şeref Can,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İLTER Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. , 2022, ss.264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
AMA Serin Ş,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. . 2022; 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Vancouver Serin Ş,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. . 2022; 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
IEEE Serin Ş,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ "Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis." , ss.264 - 287, 2022. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
ISNAD Serin, Şeref Can - ÜNLÜKAPLAN, İLTER. "Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis". (2022), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
APA Serin Ş, ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ (2022). Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Chicago Serin Şeref Can,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İLTER Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23, no.2 (2022): 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
MLA Serin Şeref Can,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İLTER Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol.23, no.2, 2022, ss.264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
AMA Serin Ş,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2022; 23(2): 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Vancouver Serin Ş,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2022; 23(2): 264 - 287. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
IEEE Serin Ş,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İ "Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis." Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23, ss.264 - 287, 2022. 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
ISNAD Serin, Şeref Can - ÜNLÜKAPLAN, İLTER. "Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis". Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23/2 (2022), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Sayfa Oluşturulma Tarihi
24-04-2024 21:4

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