Yıl: 2023 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 54 Sayfa Aralığı: 446 - 457 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301 İndeks Tarihi: 11-08-2023

Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye

Öz:
This paper focuses on the use of microsimulation methodology to generate reliable population estimations for Türkiye. Microsimulation closely mimics life course dynamics and is therefore well-suited for predicting demographic changes. Using data from the 2018 Türkiye Demographic Health Survey, we developed a new microsimulation method that allows for greater customization and accuracy without relying on external patterns or models. The resulting population simulation includes age, education, marital status, usual residence, and labour force status for each individual until 2030. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and adaptability of microsimulation for demography and argues that it provides a coherent and meaningful way to estimate and project population attributes that other tools cannot provide. Ultimately, the dynamic simulation model has the potential to inform important policy decisions related to the population in Türkiye.
Anahtar Kelime: Data Matching Fertility Household Labour Force Survey Microsimulation Türkiye Demographic and Health Survey

Türkiye için Demografik Mikrosimülasyon Modeli

Öz:
Bu makale, Türkiye için güvenilir nüfus projeksiyonları oluşturmak amacıyla mikrosimülasyon metodolojisini kullanmaktadır. Mikrosimülasyon, yaşam seyri dinamiklerini yakından taklit ettiğinden demografik değişiklikleri tahmin etmek için oldukça uygundur. Çalışma kapsamında, 2018 Türkiye Nüfus Sağlığı Araştırması verilerini kullanarak, harici kalıplara veya modellere dayanmadan özelleştirmeye olanak ve doğruluk sağlayan yeni bir mikro simülasyon yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmamız, mikrosimülasyonun demografi için esneklik ve uyarlanabilirlik sağladığını, nüfusun özniteliklerini tahmin etmek ve projeksiyon yapabilmek için diğer araçların sağlayamadığı tutarlı ve anlamlı sonuçları sağladığını savunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, dinamik simülasyon modeli Türkiye'deki nüfusla ilgili önemli politika kararları için güvenilir bilgi sağlama potansiyeline sahiptir.
Anahtar Kelime: Doğurganlık Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması Mikro simülasyon Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması Veri Eşleştirme

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA DULKADİR B, Eryurt M (2023). Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. , 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
Chicago DULKADİR Barış,Eryurt Mehmet Ali Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. (2023): 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
MLA DULKADİR Barış,Eryurt Mehmet Ali Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. , 2023, ss.446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
AMA DULKADİR B,Eryurt M Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. . 2023; 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
Vancouver DULKADİR B,Eryurt M Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. . 2023; 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
IEEE DULKADİR B,Eryurt M "Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye." , ss.446 - 457, 2023. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
ISNAD DULKADİR, Barış - Eryurt, Mehmet Ali. "Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye". (2023), 446-457. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
APA DULKADİR B, Eryurt M (2023). Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 20(54), 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
Chicago DULKADİR Barış,Eryurt Mehmet Ali Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi 20, no.54 (2023): 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
MLA DULKADİR Barış,Eryurt Mehmet Ali Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol.20, no.54, 2023, ss.446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
AMA DULKADİR B,Eryurt M Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2023; 20(54): 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
Vancouver DULKADİR B,Eryurt M Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2023; 20(54): 446 - 457. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
IEEE DULKADİR B,Eryurt M "Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye." OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 20, ss.446 - 457, 2023. 10.26466/opusjsr.1294301
ISNAD DULKADİR, Barış - Eryurt, Mehmet Ali. "Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye". OPUS Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi 20/54 (2023), 446-457. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1294301