Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model

Introduction: In a resource-constrained situation, a clinical risk stratification system can assist in identifying individuals who are at higher risk and should be tested for COVID-19. This study aims to find a predictive scoring model to estimate the COVID-19 diagnosis. Materials and Methods: Patients who applied to the emergency pandemic clinic between April 2020 and March 2021 were enrolled in this retrospective study. At admission, demographic characteristics, symptoms, comorbid diseases, chest computed tomography (CT), and laboratory findings were all recorded. Development and validation datasets were created. The scoring system was performed using the coefficients of the odds ratios obtained from the multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Among 1187 patients admitted to the hospital, the median age was 58 years old (22-96), and 52.7% were male. In a multivariable analysis, typical radiological findings (OR= 8.47, CI= 5.48-13.10, p< 0.001) and dyspnea (OR= 2.85, CI= 1.71-4.74, p< 0.001) were found to be the two important risk factors for COVID-19 diagnosis, followed by myalgia (OR= 1.80, CI= 1.08- 2.99, p= 0.023), cough (OR= 1.65, CI= 1.16-2.26, p= 0.006) and fatigue symptoms (OR= 1.57, CI= 1.06-2.30, p= 0.023). In our scoring system, dyspnea was scored as 2 points, cough as 1 point, fatigue as 1 point, myalgia as 1 point, and typical radiological findings were scored as 5 points. This scoring system had a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 76.3% for a cut-off value of >2, with a total score of 10 (p< 0.001). Conclusion: The predictive scoring system could accurately predict the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection, which gave clinicians a theoretical basis for devising immediate treatment options. An evaluation of the predictive efficacy of the scoring system necessitates a multi-center investigation.

Anahtar Kelime: COVID-19 scoring system prediction model diagnosis

COVID-19 tanısal tahmin modeli için basitleştirilmiş risk skorlama sisteminin geliştirilmesi ve doğrulanması

Öz:

Giriş: Kaynakların kısıtlı olduğu bir durumda klinik risk skorlama sistemi, daha yüksek risk altında olan ve COVID-19 için test edilme- si gereken bireylerin belirlenmesine yardımcı olabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, COVID-19 tanısını tahmin edebilecek öngörücü bir skor- lama modeli bulmaktır. Materyal ve Metod: Çalışmaya Nisan 2020 ile Mart 2021 tarihleri arasında acil pandemi polikliniğine başvuran hastalar dahil edilmiş- tir. Başvuru sırasında olguların demografik özellikleri, semptomları, komorbid hastalıkları, toraks bilgisayarlı tomografi (BT) ve labora- tuvar bulguları retrospektif olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Geliştirme ve doğrulama veri setleri oluşturulmuştur. Çok değişkenli lojistik reg- resyon analizi sonucunda elde edilen katsayılar kullanılarak skorlama sistemi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular: Hastaneye başvuran 1187 hastanın ortanca yaşı 58’di (22-96) ve %52,7’si erkekti. Çok değişkenli analizde, tipik radyolojik bulgular (OR= 8,47, CI= 5,48-13,10, p< 0.001) ve dispne (OR= 2,85, CI= 1,71-4,74, p< 0,001) COVID-19 tanısı için iki önemli risk faktörü olarak bulunmuş, bunları miyalji (OR= 1,80, CI= 1,08-2,99, p= 0,023), öksürük (OR= 1,65, CI= 1,16-2,26, p= 0,006) ve yorgunluk semptomları (OR= 1,57, CI= 1,06-2,30, p= 0,023) izlemiştir. Skorlama sistemimizde dispne 2 puan, öksürük 1 puan, yor- gunluk 1 puan, miyalji 1 puan ve tipik radyolojik bulgular 5 puan olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Toplam skor 10 ve >2 cut off değeri için bu skorlama sisteminin duyarlılığı %71, özgüllüğü ise %76,3 olarak bulunmuştur (p< 0,001). Sonuç: Tanısal öngörücü skorlama sistemi COVID-19 enfeksiyonu tanısını doğru bir şekilde tahmin edebilmiş ve bu da klinisyenlere acil tedavi seçenekleri sunmaları için teorik bir temel sağlamıştır. Skorlama sisteminin öngörücü etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesi için çok merkezli bir araştırmaya ihtiyaç vardır.

Anahtar Kelime: COVID-19 skorlama sistemi tahmin modeli tanı

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	Aydin Guclu O, Ursavas A, OCAKOGLU G, Demirdöğen E, Acet Öztürk N, Omer Topcu D, Terzi O, Onal U, Gorek Dilektasli A, Sağlık İ, Coskun F, Ediger D, Uzaslan E, Akalın H, Karadağ M (2023). Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. , 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
Chicago	Aydin Guclu Ozge,Ursavas Ahmet,OCAKOGLU Gokhan,Demirdöğen Ezgi,Acet Öztürk Nilüfer Aylin,Omer Topcu Dilara,Terzi Orkun Eray,Onal Ugur,Gorek Dilektasli Asli,Sağlık İmran,Coskun Funda,Ediger Dane,Uzaslan Esra,Akalın Halis,Karadağ Mehmet Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. (2023): 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
MLA	Aydin Guclu Ozge,Ursavas Ahmet,OCAKOGLU Gokhan,Demirdöğen Ezgi,Acet Öztürk Nilüfer Aylin,Omer Topcu Dilara,Terzi Orkun Eray,Onal Ugur,Gorek Dilektasli Asli,Sağlık İmran,Coskun Funda,Ediger Dane,Uzaslan Esra,Akalın Halis,Karadağ Mehmet Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. , 2023, ss.325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
AMA	Aydin Guclu O,Ursavas A,OCAKOGLU G,Demirdöğen E,Acet Öztürk N,Omer Topcu D,Terzi O,Onal U,Gorek Dilektasli A,Sağlık İ,Coskun F,Ediger D,Uzaslan E,Akalın H,Karadağ M Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. . 2023; 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
Vancouver	Aydin Guclu O,Ursavas A,OCAKOGLU G,Demirdöğen E,Acet Öztürk N,Omer Topcu D,Terzi O,Onal U,Gorek Dilektasli A,Sağlık İ,Coskun F,Ediger D,Uzaslan E,Akalın H,Karadağ M Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. . 2023; 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
IEEE	Aydin Guclu O,Ursavas A,OCAKOGLU G,Demirdöğen E,Acet Öztürk N,Omer Topcu D,Terzi O,Onal U,Gorek Dilektasli A,Sağlık İ,Coskun F,Ediger D,Uzaslan E,Akalın H,Karadağ M "Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model." , ss.325 - 334, 2023. 10.5578/tt.20239601
ISNAD	Aydin Guclu, Ozge vd. "Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model". (2023), 325-334. https://doi.org/10.5578/tt.20239601

APA	Aydin Guclu O, Ursavas A, OCAKOGLU G, Demirdöğen E, Acet Öztürk N, Omer Topcu D, Terzi O, Onal U, Gorek Dilektasli A, Sağlık İ, Coskun F, Ediger D, Uzaslan E, Akalın H, Karadağ M (2023). Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. Tüberküloz ve Toraks, 71(4), 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
Chicago	Aydin Guclu Ozge,Ursavas Ahmet,OCAKOGLU Gokhan,Demirdöğen Ezgi,Acet Öztürk Nilüfer Aylin,Omer Topcu Dilara,Terzi Orkun Eray,Onal Ugur,Gorek Dilektasli Asli,Sağlık İmran,Coskun Funda,Ediger Dane,Uzaslan Esra,Akalın Halis,Karadağ Mehmet Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. Tüberküloz ve Toraks 71, no.4 (2023): 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
MLA	Aydin Guclu Ozge,Ursavas Ahmet,OCAKOGLU Gokhan,Demirdöğen Ezgi,Acet Öztürk Nilüfer Aylin,Omer Topcu Dilara,Terzi Orkun Eray,Onal Ugur,Gorek Dilektasli Asli,Sağlık İmran,Coskun Funda,Ediger Dane,Uzaslan Esra,Akalın Halis,Karadağ Mehmet Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. Tüberküloz ve Toraks, vol.71, no.4, 2023, ss.325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
AMA	Aydin Guclu O,Ursavas A,OCAKOGLU G,Demirdöğen E,Acet Öztürk N,Omer Topcu D,Terzi O,Onal U,Gorek Dilektasli A,Sağlık İ,Coskun F,Ediger D,Uzaslan E,Akalın H,Karadağ M Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. Tüberküloz ve Toraks. 2023; 71(4): 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
Vancouver	Aydin Guclu O,Ursavas A,OCAKOGLU G,Demirdöğen E,Acet Öztürk N,Omer Topcu D,Terzi O,Onal U,Gorek Dilektasli A,Sağlık İ,Coskun F,Ediger D,Uzaslan E,Akalın H,Karadağ M Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model. Tüberküloz ve Toraks. 2023; 71(4): 325 - 334. 10.5578/tt.20239601
IEEE	Aydin Guclu O,Ursavas A,OCAKOGLU G,Demirdöğen E,Acet Öztürk N,Omer Topcu D,Terzi O,Onal U,Gorek Dilektasli A,Sağlık İ,Coskun F,Ediger D,Uzaslan E,Akalın H,Karadağ M "Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model." Tüberküloz ve Toraks, 71, ss.325 - 334, 2023. 10.5578/tt.20239601
ISNAD	Aydin Guclu, Ozge vd. "Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction model". Tüberküloz ve Toraks 71/4 (2023), 325-334. https://doi.org/10.5578/tt.20239601