Yıl: 2023 Cilt: 4 Sayı: Özel Sayı Sayfa Aralığı: 51 - 64 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109 İndeks Tarihi: 31-12-2023

A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes

Öz:
Resilience in the face of crises is crucial for minimizing the impact of disasters and enabling rapid recovery. This study delves into the interlinked consequences of two seismic events that significantly impacted Türkiye in 1999 and 2023. Using an impact chain analysis, the aim is to provide a thorough understanding of the extensive effects on structures, infrastructure, and socio-economic dynamics. The research also examines the evolution of disaster management practices from the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake to the more recent seismic events in 2023, highlighting advancements in risk management and resilience. Structurally, both seismic events revealed vulnerabilities in building design, emphasizing seismic shortcomings that led to widespread damage. Earthquakes exert a profound impact on critical infrastructure, affecting transportation, communication, and energy systems, with cascading effects that extend to the broader socio-economic landscape. The effectiveness of the methodology, particularly, the Impact Chain analysis, is emphasized as it reveals complex causal relationships. Visual representations support effective communication and collaboration among stakeholders, offering a holistic perspective on systemic risks. In conclusion, this study contributes to understanding disaster resilience and provides a foundation for subsequent research, policy formulation, and pragmatic strategies for disaster preparedness and response.
Anahtar Kelime: cascading effect earthquake impact chain resilience systemic risk

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Altinok, Y., Tinti, S., Alpar, B., Yalciner, A. C., Ersoy, Ş., Bortolucci, E., & Armigliato, A. (2001). The tsunami of August 17, 1999 in Izmit bay, Turkey. Natural Hazards, 24, 133-146.
  • Avcil, F., Işık, E., İzol, R., Büyüksaraç, A., Arkan, E., Arslan, M. H., ... & Harirchian, E. (2023). Effects of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquake on structures in Kahramanmaraş city. Natural Hazards, 1-39.
  • BETAM (2023). 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin Ekonomik Etkisi, Araştırma Notu 23/270, İstanbul.https://betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr/2023/03/6-subat-2023-kahramanmaras-depremlerinin-ekonomik-etkisi/.
  • Binici, B., Yakut, A., Kadas, K., Demirel, O., Akpinar, U., Canbolat, A., ... & Canbay, E. (2023). Performance of RC buildings after Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes: lessons toward performance based design. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 1-12.
  • BTK 2023 https://www.btk.gov.tr/uploads/pages/iletisim-hizmetleri-istatistikleri/haber-bulteni-2022-4-645b55bbf3b40.pdf.
  • Celep, Z., Erken, A., Taskin, B., & Ilki, A. (2011). Failures of masonry and concrete buildings during the March 8, 2010 Kovancılar and Palu (Elazığ) earthquakes in Turkey. Engineering Failure Analysis, 18(3), 868-889.
  • Cruz, A.M., Steinberg, L.J., Arellano, A.L.V., Nordvik, J.P., & Pisano, F. (2004). State of the Art in Natech Risk Management. European Commission Directorate General Joint Research Centre, EUR 21292 EN.
  • Demir, U., Goksu, C., Unal, G., Green, M., & Ilki, A. (2020a). Effect of fire damage on seismic behavior of cast-in-place reinforced concrete columns. Journal of Structural Engineering, 146(11), 04020232.
  • Demir, U., Goksu, C., Binbir, E., & Ilki, A. (2020b). Impact of time after fire on post-fire seismic behavior of RC columns. In Structures, 26, 537-548.
  • Demir, U., Unal, G., Goksu, C., Saribas, I., & Ilki, A. (2022). Post-fire seismic behavior of RC columns built with sustainable concrete. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 26(13), 6869-6892.
  • Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) of Ministry of Interior Affairs of Türkiye (2023). 06 February 2023 Pazarcik-Elbistan (Kahramanmaraş) Mw: 7.7 – Mw: 7.6 earthquakes report. [in Turkish].
  • Durukal, E., & Erdik, M. (2008). Physical and economic losses sustained by the industry in the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake. Nat Hazards 46, 153–178. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9218-6.
  • Dündar, M.S., & Altundağ, H. (2002) Heavy metal determination of house dust in Adapazari, Turkey, after earthquake. Trace Elements and Electrolytes 19(2):55-58.
  • Dündar, M.S., & Pala, M.F. (2003) Monitoring of lead, zinc, cadmium, nickel, chromium and copper in street dust samples in Adapazarı, Turkey, after earthquake, Trace Elements and Electrolytes, 20(2):104-107.
  • Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) (2023). February 6, 2023 Türkiye earthquakes:Report on geoscience and engineering impacts, https://10.18118/G6PM34.
  • Girgin, S. (2011). The natech events during the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake: aftermath and lessons learned. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(4), 1129-1140.
  • Gurbuz T., Cengiz, A., Kolemenoglu, S., Demir, C., & Ilki, A. (2023). Damages and failures of structures in Izmir (Turkey) during the October 30, 2020 Aegean Sea earthquake. Journal of Earthquake Engineering 27(6): 1565-1606.
  • Ilki, A., & Celep, Z. (2012) Earthquakes, existing buildings and seismic design codes in Turkey. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering 37:365-380.
  • Integrated Research on Disaster Risk. (2011). Forensic Investigations of Disasters: The FORIN Project (IRDR FORIN Publication No. 1). Beijing: Integrated Research on Disaster Risk.
  • Kumu. (n.d.). Kumu. https://kumu.io/, last accessed 2023/12/01.
  • Kundak, S. (2010). Estimation of economic losses according to the earthquake scenarios for Istanbul. In Risks Challenging Publics, Scientists and Governments (pp. 173-184). CRC Press.
  • Law on Building Inspection. (2001). Official Gazette of Republic of Türkiye, No: 4708, 29.06.2001.
  • Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (MoEUCC) of Türkiye. https://csb.gov.tr.
  • Miro | The Visual Workspace for Innovation. (n.d.). https://miro.com/, last accessed 2023/12/01.
  • Oliver-Smith, A., Alcántara-Ayala, I., Burton, I., & Lavell, A. (2019). Forensic Investigations of Disasters (FORIN).
  • Özmen, B. (2000) 17 Ağustos 1999 İzmit Körfezi Depremi’nin Hasar Durumu. Turkish Earthquake Foundation.
  • PARATUS Project. (2023). Deliverable 1.1 Report on participatory workshops in the four application case study sites, including impact chains diagrams for each analysed event. https://www.paratus-project.eu/portfolio-items/d1-1/?portfolioCats=4#.
  • Pittore, M., Zebisch, M., Cocuccioni, S., Renner, K., Fruchter, S., & Schneiderbauer, S. (2023). Impact Chains - Guideline and specifications v1.0. EURAC Research, Bolzano.
  • Scawthorn, C. (2000). The Marmara, Turkey Earthquake of August 17, 1999: Reconnaissance Report. In The Marmara, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999: Reconnaissance report.
  • Sezen, H., Elwood, K. J., Whittaker, A. S., Mosalam, K. M., Wallace, J. W., & Stanton, J. F. (2000). Structural engineering reconnaissance of the August 17, 1999, Kocaeli (Izmit), Turkey, earthquake. Technical Rep. No., PEER 2000, 9.
  • Sönmez M, İstanbul’un İki Yüzü: 1980’den 2000’e Değişim, 1996, Ankara.
  • Steinberg, L.J., & Cruz, A.M. (2004). When Natural and Technological Disasters Collide: Lessons from the Turkey Earthquake of August 17, 1999. Natural Hazards Review, 5(3):121-130.
  • Strategy and Budget Office (SBO) of Presidency of Türkiye (2023). 2023 Kahramanmaraş and Hatay earthquakes report.
  • Tapan, M., Comert, M., Demir, C., Sayan, Y., Orakcal, K., & Ilki, A. (2013). Failures of structures during the October 23, 2011 Tabanlı (Van) and November 9, 2011 Edremit (Van) earthquakes in Turkey. Engineering Failure Analysis, 34, 606-628.
  • TEPAV (2023). İstihdam İzleme Bülteni, Sayı: 132. https://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/1693194147-5.TEPAV_istihdam_izleme_Bulteni_Mayis2023.pdf
  • TS500 Requirements for Design and Construction of Reinforced Concrete Structures. (2000). Turkish Standards Institution. Ankara, Türkiye.
  • TUBITAK-BILGEM (2001) Bilgi Teknolojileri Yaygınlik ve Kullanim Araştırması -2000, Bilgi Teknolojileri ve Elektronik Arastirma Enstitüsü. Ankara, TUBITAK, BİLGEM.
  • TURKONFED (2023). 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremi - Afet Ön Değerlendirme Durum Raporu, https://turkonfed.org/tr/detay/3937/2023-kahramanmaras-depremi-afet-on-degerlendirme-durum-raporu
  • TÜİK 2023. Foreign Trada Statistics, Ankara Türkiye.
  • Türkiye Building Earthquake Code (TBEC). (2018). Official Gazette of Republic of Türkiye, No: 30364, 18 March 2018.
  • Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi (T.B.M.M.). (2010). Parliamentary Investigation Commission Report Established for Researching Earthquake Risk and Determining Necessary Measures for Earthquake Management. https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/sirasayi/donem23/yil01/ss549.pdf.
  • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction – UNDRR (2019) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.
  • Weizman, E., Tavares, P., Schuppli, S., & Studio, S. (2010). Forensic architecture. Architectural Design, 80(5), 58–63.
  • World Bank (1999). Marmara Earthquake Assessment. 27380. Turkey Country Office.
  • Zebisch, M., Terzi, S., Pittore, M., Renner, K., & Schneiderbauer, S. (2022). Climate impact chains—a conceptual modelling approach for climate risk assessment in the context of adaptation planning. In Climate adaptation modelling (pp. 217-224). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
APA goksu c, KUNDAK S, ARSLANLI K, Asici A, KALKANLI D, Yilmaz A (2023). A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. , 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
Chicago goksu caglar,KUNDAK SEDA,ARSLANLI Kerem Yavuz,Asici Ahmet,KALKANLI DUYGU,Yilmaz Ali A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. (2023): 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
MLA goksu caglar,KUNDAK SEDA,ARSLANLI Kerem Yavuz,Asici Ahmet,KALKANLI DUYGU,Yilmaz Ali A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. , 2023, ss.51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
AMA goksu c,KUNDAK S,ARSLANLI K,Asici A,KALKANLI D,Yilmaz A A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. . 2023; 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
Vancouver goksu c,KUNDAK S,ARSLANLI K,Asici A,KALKANLI D,Yilmaz A A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. . 2023; 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
IEEE goksu c,KUNDAK S,ARSLANLI K,Asici A,KALKANLI D,Yilmaz A "A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes." , ss.51 - 64, 2023. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
ISNAD goksu, caglar vd. "A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes". (2023), 51-64. https://doi.org/10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
APA goksu c, KUNDAK S, ARSLANLI K, Asici A, KALKANLI D, Yilmaz A (2023). A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning, 4(Özel Sayı), 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
Chicago goksu caglar,KUNDAK SEDA,ARSLANLI Kerem Yavuz,Asici Ahmet,KALKANLI DUYGU,Yilmaz Ali A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning 4, no.Özel Sayı (2023): 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
MLA goksu caglar,KUNDAK SEDA,ARSLANLI Kerem Yavuz,Asici Ahmet,KALKANLI DUYGU,Yilmaz Ali A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning, vol.4, no.Özel Sayı, 2023, ss.51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
AMA goksu c,KUNDAK S,ARSLANLI K,Asici A,KALKANLI D,Yilmaz A A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning. 2023; 4(Özel Sayı): 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
Vancouver goksu c,KUNDAK S,ARSLANLI K,Asici A,KALKANLI D,Yilmaz A A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning. 2023; 4(Özel Sayı): 51 - 64. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
IEEE goksu c,KUNDAK S,ARSLANLI K,Asici A,KALKANLI D,Yilmaz A "A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes." Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning, 4, ss.51 - 64, 2023. 10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109
ISNAD goksu, caglar vd. "A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes". Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning 4/Özel Sayı (2023), 51-64. https://doi.org/10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109