Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in
Yıl: 2011 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 71 - 84 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in
Öz: Bu çalısmada, döviz kuru ile ABD doları cinsinden ithalat fiyatlarının Türkiye’de tüketici ve üretici fiyatlarına geçiskenliği incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, tedarik zinciri fiyatlaması çerçevesi enflasyon hedeflemesinin uygulandığı dönem ve daha öncesi için VAR yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilmistir. Sonuçlar, her iki dıssal faktörün üretici fiyatlarına geçiskenliğinin tüketici fiyatlarına geçiskenliğinden daha yüksek olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Buna ek olarak, geçiskenliklerin boyutları enflasyon hedeflemesi döneminde enflasyon hedeflemesi öncesindeki döneme kıyasla önemli ölçüde daha düsük çıkmıstır. Yakın dönem incelendiğinde, döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının tüketici fiyatlarına geçiskenliğinin birikimli olarak birbirlerine benzer olduğu, ancak ithalat fiyatlarına gelen sokların tüketici fiyatlarına döviz kuruna gelen soklara kıyasla daha çabuk yansıdığı gözlenmistir. Diğer taraftan, ithalat fiyatlarına gelen sokların üretici fiyatlarına döviz kuru soklarına göre daha yüksek düzeyde yansıdığı bulunmustur. Bu tahmin sonuçlarına dayalı olarak yapılan alıstırma, 2007-2009 yılları arasında dıssal faktörlerin tüketici enflasyonu üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bunun yanı sıra, döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının es zamanlı zıt yönlü hareketlerinin fiyatlar üzerinde birbirlerinin etkilerini sınırladığı, hatta zaman zaman birbirlerini dengelediği görülmektedir.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Turkey Dışsal faktörlerin Türkiye'de fiyat göstergelerine geçişkenliği
Öz: This study analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate and US Dollar denominated import prices into consumer and producer prices in Turkey. To this end, pricing along a distribution chain framework is utilized and it is estimated by Vector Auto Regression(VAR) for the pre-inflation targeting and the inflation targeting periods. Results show that the pass-through of both external factors into producer prices is higher than it is for consumer prices. In addition, the degree of pass-through is significantly lower in the inflation targeting period compared to the previous period. The cumulative exchange rate and import price pass-through coefficients into consumer prices for the recent period are found similar to each other while import price shocks are reflected much faster. For the producer prices, import price shocks are found to be reflected more than the exchange rate shocks. An exercise based on these estimation results shows that during 2007-2009 external factors were influential on consumer prices. Furthermore simultaneous counter movements of exchange rate and import prices at that period limited and sometimes offset the impact of each other on consumer prices.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| MLA | YÜNCÜLER Çağlar Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in. Central Bank Review, vol.11, no.2, 2011, ss.71 - 84. |
| AMA | YÜNCÜLER Ç Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in. Central Bank Review. 2011; 11(2): 71 - 84. |
| Vancouver | YÜNCÜLER Ç Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in. Central Bank Review. 2011; 11(2): 71 - 84. |
| IEEE | YÜNCÜLER Ç "Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in." Central Bank Review, 11, ss.71 - 84, 2011. |
| ISNAD | YÜNCÜLER, Çağlar. "Pass-through of external factors into price indicators in". Central Bank Review 11/2 (2011), 71-84. |
