An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey
Yıl: 2017 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 31 - 38 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey
Öz: Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banksclosely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. TheCentral Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in theŞnancial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation.The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictionsusing forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions.Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, signpredictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike theempirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform mostof inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poorpoint forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations havevalue to a user.© 2017 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an openaccess article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | Soybilgen B, YAZGAN M (2017). An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. , 31 - 38. |
| Chicago | Soybilgen Baris,YAZGAN MUSTAFA EGE An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. (2017): 31 - 38. |
| MLA | Soybilgen Baris,YAZGAN MUSTAFA EGE An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. , 2017, ss.31 - 38. |
| AMA | Soybilgen B,YAZGAN M An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. . 2017; 31 - 38. |
| Vancouver | Soybilgen B,YAZGAN M An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. . 2017; 31 - 38. |
| IEEE | Soybilgen B,YAZGAN M "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey." , ss.31 - 38, 2017. |
| ISNAD | Soybilgen, Baris - YAZGAN, MUSTAFA EGE. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey". (2017), 31-38. |
| APA | Soybilgen B, YAZGAN M (2017). An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 17(1), 31 - 38. |
| Chicago | Soybilgen Baris,YAZGAN MUSTAFA EGE An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review 17, no.1 (2017): 31 - 38. |
| MLA | Soybilgen Baris,YAZGAN MUSTAFA EGE An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review, vol.17, no.1, 2017, ss.31 - 38. |
| AMA | Soybilgen B,YAZGAN M An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review. 2017; 17(1): 31 - 38. |
| Vancouver | Soybilgen B,YAZGAN M An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review. 2017; 17(1): 31 - 38. |
| IEEE | Soybilgen B,YAZGAN M "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey." Central Bank Review, 17, ss.31 - 38, 2017. |
| ISNAD | Soybilgen, Baris - YAZGAN, MUSTAFA EGE. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey". Central Bank Review 17/1 (2017), 31-38. |
