Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests

Yıl: 2017 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 39 - 45 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests

Öz:
This study explores the empirical validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis betweenTurkey and its four major trading partners, the European Union, Russia, China and the US. Accounting forthe nonlinear nature of real exchange rates, we employ a battery of recently developed nonlinear unitroot tests. Our empirical results reveal that nonlinear unit root tests deliver stronger evidence in favour ofthe PPP hypothesis when compared to the conventional unit root tests only if nonlinearities in realexchange rates are correctly speciŞed. Furthermore, it emerges from our Şndings that the real exchangerates of the countries having a free trade agreement are more likely to behave as linear stationaryprocesses.© 2017 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an openaccess article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Abadir, K.M., Distaso, W., 2007. Testing joint hypotheses when one of the alternatives is one-sided. J. Econ. 140 (2), 695e718.
  • Alba, J.D., Park, D., 2005. An empirical investigation of purchasing power parity (PPP) for Turkey. J. Policy Model. 27 (8), 989e1000.
  • Cerrato, M., Sarantis, N., 2006. Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence from developing and emerging market economies. Econ. Bull. 7, 1e14.
  • Chortareas, G., Kapetanios, G., 2004. The Yen real exchange rate may be stationary after all: evidence from nonlinear unit root tests. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 66, 113e131.
  • Cuestas, J.C., Gil-Alana, L.A., 2009. Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes. Econ. Model. 26 (6), 1184e1192.
  • Davies, R.B., 1987. Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 74, 33e43.
  • Dumas, B., 1992. Dynamic equilibrium and the real exchange rate in spatially separated world. Rev. Financ. Stud. 5, 153e180.
  • Edison, H.J., Fisher, E.O., 1991. A long-run view of the European monetary system. J. Int. Money Financ. 5, 153e180.
  • Erlat, H., 2004. Unit roots or nonlinear stationarity in Turkish real exchange rates. Appl. Econ. Lett. 11 (10), 645e650.
  • Francis, B., Iyare, S., 2006. Do exchange rates in Caribbean and Latin American countries exhibit nonlinearities? Econ. Bull. 14, 1e20.
  • Frankel, J.A., Rose, A.K., 1996. A panel project on purchasing power parity: mean reversion within and between countries. J. Int. Econ. 40, 209e224.
  • Glen, J.D., 1992. Real exchange rates in short, medium and long run. J. Int. Econ. 33, 147e166.
  • Gormez, Y., Yilmaz, G., 2007. The evolution of exchange rate regime choices in Turkey. In: OeNB (Ed.), Oesterreichische Nationalbank Workshops, 13/2008, pp. 269e302.
  • Gozgor, G., 2011. Purchasing power parity hypothesis among the main trading partners of Turkey. Econ. Bull. 31 (2), 1432e1438.
  • Guloglu, B., Ispira, S., Okat, D., 2011. Testing the validity of quasi PPP hypothesis: evidence from a recent panel unit root test with structural breaks. Appl. Econ. Lett. 18 (18), 1817e1822.
  • Hasan, M.S., 2004. Univariate time series behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from colonial India. Econ. Lett. 84, 75e80.
  • Hegwood, N.D., Papell, D.H., 1998. Quasi purchasing power parity. Int. J. Financ. Econ. 3 (4), 279e289.
  • Holmes, M.J., 2001. New evidence on real exchange rate stationarity and purchasing power parity in less developed countries. J. Macroecon. 23 (4), 601e614.
  • Kalyoncu, H., 2009. New evidence of the validity of purchasing power parity from Turkey. Appl. Econ. Lett. 16 (1), 63e67.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., Snell, A., 2003. Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. J. Econ. 112, 359e379.
  • Kasman, S., Ayhan, D., 2012. Macroeconomic volatility under alternative exchange rate regimes in Turkey. Cent. Bank. Rev. 6 (2), 37e58.
  • Kılıç, R., 2011. Testing for unit root in a stationary ESTAR process. Econ. Rev. 30 (3), 274e302.
  • Kruse, R., 2011. A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics. Stat. Pap. 52, 71e85.
  • Kutan, A.M., Zhou, S., 2015. PPP may hold better than you think: smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates. Econ. Sys. 39 (2), 358e366.
  • Liew, V.K.S., Baharumshah, A.Z., Lim, K.P., 2004. On Singapore dollar-US dollar and purchasing power parity. Singap. Econ. Rev. 49, 71e84.
  • Lothian, J.R., Taylor, M.P., 1996. Real exchange rate behaviour: the recent flow from the perspective of the past two centuries. J. Political Econ. 104, 488e510. Lukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P., Ter€ asvirta, T., 1988. Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive models. Biometrika 75, 491e499.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L., Papell, D.H., 1997. Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. Rev. Econ. Stat. 79, 212e218.
  • Meese, R.A., Rogoff, K., 1988. Was it real? The exchange rate-interest differential relation over the modern floating-rate period. J. Financ. 43, 933e948.
  • Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519e1554.
  • Oh, K.Y., 1996. Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data. J. Int. Money Financ. 15, 405e418.
  • Ozdemir, Z., 2008. The purchasing power parity hypothesis in Turkey: evidence from nonlinear STAR error-correction models. Appl. Econ. Lett. 15, 307e311.
  • Perron, P., 1989. The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica 57, 1361e1401.
  • Pippenger, M.K., Goering, G.E., 1993. A note on the empirical power of unit root tests under threshold process. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 55 (4), 473e481.
  • Rogoff, R., 1996. The purchasing power parity puzzle. J. Econ. Lit. 34, 647e668. Sarno, L., Taylor, M.P., 2002. Purchasing power parity and the real exchange rate. IMF Staff Pap. 49, 65e105.
  • Sarno, L., 2005. Viewpoint: towards a solution to the puzzle in exchange rate economics: where do we stand? Can. J. Econ. 383, 673e708.
  • Sercu, P., Uppal, R., van Hulle, J., 1995. The exchange rate in the presence of transactions costs: implications for tests of purchasing power parity. J. Financ. 50, 1309e1319.
  • Taylor, M.P., 1995. The economics of exchange rates. J. Econ. Lit. 33 (1), 13e47.
  • Taylor, M.P., Sarno, L., 1998. The behaviour of real exchange rates during the postBretton Woods period. J. Int. Econ. 46, 281e312.
  • Taylor, M.P., 2001. Potential pitfalls for the purchasing-power parity puzzle? Sampling and specification biases in mean reversion tests of the law of one price. Econometrica 69, 473e498.
  • Taylor, M.P., 2003. Purchasing power parity. Rev. Int. Econ. 11, 436e452.
  • Taylor, M.P., Taylor, A.M., 2004. Purchasing power parity debate. J. Econ. Perspect. 18 (4), 135e158.
  • Telatar, E., Kazdagli, H., 1998. Re-examine the long-run purchasing power parity hypothesis for a high inflation country: the case of Turkey 1980e93. Appl. Econ. Lett. 5 (1), 51e53.
  • Telatar, E., Hasanov, M., 2009. Purchasing power parity in central and east european countries. East. Eur. Econ. 47 (5), 25e41.
  • Wallace, F., 2008. Nonlinear unit root tests of PPP using long-horizon data. Econ. Bull. 6, 1e8.
  • Wu, Y., 1996. Are real exchange rates nonstationary? Evidence from a panel-data test. J. Money, Credit Bank. 24, 72e82.
  • Zivot, E., Andrews, D.W.K., 1992. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 10, 251e270.
APA YILDIRIM KASAP D (2017). Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. , 39 - 45.
Chicago YILDIRIM KASAP DİLEM Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. (2017): 39 - 45.
MLA YILDIRIM KASAP DİLEM Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. , 2017, ss.39 - 45.
AMA YILDIRIM KASAP D Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. . 2017; 39 - 45.
Vancouver YILDIRIM KASAP D Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. . 2017; 39 - 45.
IEEE YILDIRIM KASAP D "Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests." , ss.39 - 45, 2017.
ISNAD YILDIRIM KASAP, DİLEM. "Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests". (2017), 39-45.
APA YILDIRIM KASAP D (2017). Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. Central Bank Review, 17(2), 39 - 45.
Chicago YILDIRIM KASAP DİLEM Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. Central Bank Review 17, no.2 (2017): 39 - 45.
MLA YILDIRIM KASAP DİLEM Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. Central Bank Review, vol.17, no.2, 2017, ss.39 - 45.
AMA YILDIRIM KASAP D Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. Central Bank Review. 2017; 17(2): 39 - 45.
Vancouver YILDIRIM KASAP D Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests. Central Bank Review. 2017; 17(2): 39 - 45.
IEEE YILDIRIM KASAP D "Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests." Central Bank Review, 17, ss.39 - 45, 2017.
ISNAD YILDIRIM KASAP, DİLEM. "Empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for Turkey: Evidence from recent nonlinear unit root tests". Central Bank Review 17/2 (2017), 39-45.