Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models

ÇOBAN, KAAN HAKAN; SAYIL, Nilgun

Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models

Kaan Hakan ÇOBAN, (Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, TURKEY)

NİLGÜN LÜTFİYE SAYIL (Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, TURKEY)

Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi

4 1

Yıl: 2018 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 491 - 500 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 19-10-2018

Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models

Öz:

Turkey has a high earthquake risk due to include active the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The earthquakes should be detail investigated in order to minimize the damage caused by the earthquakes. Different statistical approaches are used in these estimation studies. The Poisson distribution model is widely used in earthquake studies. The model used for a large number of statistical studies and it gives reliable results. Moreover, exponential distribution model is used in earthquake prediction studies. In this study, EAFZ and its near regions were selected as the study area. The Poisson and Exponential distribution model was applied by using the earthquakes of Ms≥3.0, which occurred in the selected area between 1900 -2016. The probabilities of major earthquakes (Ms≥5.0) and recurrence periods are calculated with the models. According to the results of Poisson model the next 100 year with interval 10 year, the probability of earthquake (Ms≥5.0) is 99,5% in the next 10 years and earthquake recurrence period is estimated as 2 year. Also the probability of earthquake (Ms≥7.0) in same period is 10,7% and recurrence period is 88 year. According to the exponential distribution model results, the recurrence of earthquakes (Ms≥5.2) is 4 year and probability is 28,5%. The two models were compared with same magnitude interval and the results were evaluated. When the seismicity of the region was examined, it was seen that the results were consistent. Active seismicity of the region will continue to be investigated with different statistical studies.

Anahtar Kelime:

Doğu Anadolu fay zonu (DAFZ) ve civarının depremselliğinin Poisson ve Üstel dağılım modellerine göre incelenmesi

Öz:

Türkiye içerdiği aktif Kuzey Anadolu fay zonu (KAFZ) ve Doğu Anadolu fay zonu (DAFZ) nedeniyle yüksek deprem riskine sahiptir. Depremlerin yaratacağı hasarların en aza indirilmesi için depremlerin önceden tahmini üzerine araştırmalar yapılmalıdır. Bu tahmin çalışmalarında farklı istatiksel yaklaşımlar kullanılmaktadır. Deprem çalışmalarında literatürde yaygın olarak Poisson dağılım modeli kullanılmaktadır. Çok sayıda istatistiksel çalışmada kullanılan model güvenilir sonuçlar vermektedir. Ayrıca üstel dağılım modelinde deprem tahmin çalışmalarında kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada DAFZ ve civarı inceleme alanı olarak seçilmiştir. Seçilen bölgede 1900- 2016 yılları arasında meydana gelen Ms≥3.0 depremler kullanılarak Poisson ve Üstel dağılım modeli uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlarla büyüklüğü Ms≥5.0 olan depremlerin olma olasılıkları ve tekrarlama periyotları hesaplanmıştır. Gelecek 100 yıl için 10 yıl aralıklarla hesaplanan Poisson modeli sonuçlarına göre; 10 yıl içinde büyüklüğü (Ms≥5.0) olan bir depremin olma olasılığı %99,5 ve depremin tekrarlama periyodu 2 yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca aynı zaman periyodu içinde (Ms≥7.0) bir depremin olma olasılığı %10,8 ve depremin tekrarlama periyodu 88 yıl olarak belirlenmiştir. Üstel dağılım model sonuçlarına göre büyüklüğü (Ms≥5.2) bir depremin tekrarlama periyodu 4 yıl ve olasılığı %28,5 olarak belirlenmiştir. İki model aynı magnitüd aralığında karşılaştırılmış ve sonuçları değerlendirilmiştir. Bölgenin depremselliği incelendiğinde sonuçların tutarlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bölgenin aktif depmremselliği farklı istatistiksel çalışmalarla araştırılmaya devam edecektir.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	ÇOBAN K, SAYIL N (2018). Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. , 491 - 500.
Chicago	ÇOBAN KAAN HAKAN,SAYIL Nilgun Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. (2018): 491 - 500.
MLA	ÇOBAN KAAN HAKAN,SAYIL Nilgun Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. , 2018, ss.491 - 500.
AMA	ÇOBAN K,SAYIL N Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. . 2018; 491 - 500.
Vancouver	ÇOBAN K,SAYIL N Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. . 2018; 491 - 500.
IEEE	ÇOBAN K,SAYIL N "Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models." , ss.491 - 500, 2018.
ISNAD	ÇOBAN, KAAN HAKAN - SAYIL, Nilgun. "Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models". (2018), 491-500.

APA	ÇOBAN K, SAYIL N (2018). Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 6(2), 491 - 500.
Chicago	ÇOBAN KAAN HAKAN,SAYIL Nilgun Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi 6, no.2 (2018): 491 - 500.
MLA	ÇOBAN KAAN HAKAN,SAYIL Nilgun Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, vol.6, no.2, 2018, ss.491 - 500.
AMA	ÇOBAN K,SAYIL N Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi. 2018; 6(2): 491 - 500.
Vancouver	ÇOBAN K,SAYIL N Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi. 2018; 6(2): 491 - 500.
IEEE	ÇOBAN K,SAYIL N "Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models." Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 6, ss.491 - 500, 2018.
ISNAD	ÇOBAN, KAAN HAKAN - SAYIL, Nilgun. "Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and Exponential distribution models". Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi 6/2 (2018), 491-500.