Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri
Yıl: 2018 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 25 - 48 Metin Dili: Türkçe DOI: 10.20409/berj.2018.92 İndeks Tarihi: 13-09-2019
Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri
Öz: Bu çalışmanın amacı, finansal istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Finansalistikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediği hipotezinden hareketle, öncelikle finansal istikrarsızlığın tanımıyapılmış, ardından kavramsal çerçevenin daha iyi açıklanabilmesi için finansal istikrarsızlığın nedenleri üzerindedurulmuştur. Durağan olmayan dinamik panel veri analizinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, değişkenlerin öncelikle heterojenolup olmadıkları incelenmiş ardından değişkenlere ilişkin yatay kesit bağımlılığı araştırılmıştır. İkinci nesil panel birim köktestlerinden yararlanılan bu modelde, uzun dönem regresyon katsayısı tahmin edilmiş ve finansal istikrarsızlık ileekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkinin yönünün belirlenmesi amacıyla panel nedensellik analizindenyararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, finansal istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediği hipotezinidesteklemektedir.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
The Impact of Financial Instablity on Economic Growth: BRICT Economies
Öz: The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of financial instability on economic growth. Depart from the hypothesis that financial instability affects economic growth negatively, firstly the definition of instability is made and then focused on the causes of instability to understand a conceptual framework better. In this study, non - stationary dynamic panel data analysis has been used to analyze not only examine the heterogeneity of the variables but also to consider cross-section dependency between cross section units. The second-generation panel unit root tests are utilized in this model, the long-term regression coefficients have been estimated and panel causality analysis is used to determine the direction of the causality relationship between the economic growth and financial instability. The empirical findings of the study support the hypothesis which suggest that financial instability has adverse effects on economic growth.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
- Afonso A., Baxa J., & Slavı´k M. (2011). Fiscal developments and financial stress: A threshold VAR analysis. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series 1319.
- Ahmed, K., Juliot, M. B. M., & Abid, I. (2015). Financial development, financial instability and economic growth: Case of maghreb countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(4), 1043-1054.
- Akçay, A. Ö., & Erataş, F. (2012). Cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin panel nedensellik analizi ekseninde değerlendirilmesi. http://teacongress.org/papers2012/AKCAY-ERATAS.pdf, 1-26.
- Akerlof, G. A. (1970). The market for 'lemons': quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(3), 488–500.
- Akerlof, G. A., & R. J. Shiller. (2010). Hayvansal güdüler, insan psikolojisi ekonomiyi nasıl yönlendirir ve küresel kapitalizm için niçin önemlidir. İstanbul: Scala Yayıncılık.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2010). Forecasting the Romanian financial system stability using a stochastic simulation model. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 13(1): 81-98.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2011). Economic and financial integration of ceecs: The impact of financial instability. AUCO Czech Economic Review, 5, 27–45.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2012). Financial stability, monetary policy and budgetary coordination in EMU. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 8(573), 85-96.
- Arrow, K. J. (2010). Economic theory and the financial crises, how inefficent incentensive can lead to catastrophes the irrational economist making decisions in a dangerous World. New York: Public Affairs.
- Bilgin, C. (2007). Finansal istikrarsızlık sorunu ve iktisat politikası bağlamında Türkiye örneği. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Adana.
- Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
- Brunnermeier, M., & Sannikov, Y. (2014). A macroeconomic model with a fnancial sector. American Economic Review, 104, 379-421.
- Cardarelli, R., Elekdag, S., & Lall, S. (2011). Financial stress and economic contractions. Journal of Financial Stability, 7, 78–97.
- Ceballos, D., Pascual, M., & Cantarero, D. (2015). Financial instability and economic environment. http://www.ub.edu/iafi/Membres/DCeballos/bilbao06.pdf, 1-11, (Erişim Tarihi:09.08.2016).
- Choi, I. (1993). Improving empirical size of the KPSS test of stationary. http://hompi.sogang.ac.kr/inchoi/workingpaper/in_choi-jetem- _revision_2.pdf, (22.07.2016).
- Cihak, M. (2007). Systemic loss: A measure of financial stability. Chez Journal of Economics and Finance, 57(1-2), 5-26.
- Creel, J., Hubert, P., & Labondance, F. (2014). Financial stability and economic performance. Economic Modelling, 48, 25-40.
- Çevik EI, Diboğlu S. & Kutan, A. M. (2013). Measuring financial stress in transition economies. Journal of Financial Stability, 9, 597–611.
- Davig, T., & Hakkio C. (2010). What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity?. Federal Econimic Review, (Q II), 35–62, Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Dumetriscu, E., & Hurlin C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
- Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. J. (2009). A common factor approach to spatial heterogeneity in agricultural productivity analysis. University Library of Munich, MPRA Paper, 15810: 1-27.
- Eggoh, C. J. (2008). Financial development, financial instability and growth: A reappraisal. Law, Economics and Management Faculty, University of Orleans, 1-21.
- Enowbi, M. B., & Kupukile, M. (2012). Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries. MPRA, Paper No:43340.
- Erarslan, C., & Timurtaş, M. E. (2015). Avrupa borç krizinin seçilmiş ülke örnekleri üzerindeki etkileri. Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 1(2), 17-54.
- Erataş, F. (2012). Döviz kuru ve ekonomik büyüme ekseninde Krugman 45 derece kuralının geçerliği: Küresel bir analiz. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İzmir.
- Gersl, A., & Hermanek, J. (2006). Financial stability ,indicators: Advantages and disadvantages of their use in the assessment of the financial system stability. Czech National Bank, Financial Stability Report.
- Grimaldi M. B. (2010). Etecting and interpreting financial stress in the Euro area. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series 1214.
- Güloğlu, B., & M. İvrendi. (2010). Output fluctuations: Transitory or permanent? The case of Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 17(4): 381-386.
- Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letter, 115, 31-34.
- Hakkio C. & W. Keeton. (2009). Financial stress: What is it, how can it be measured and why does ıt matter?. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic Review, (Q II), 5–50.
- Hatzius J., Hooper P., Mishkin F., S., Schoenholtz K., L. & Watson, M., W. (2010). Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis. NBER, Working Paper 16150.
- Holmfeldt, M., Rydén, A., Strömberg, L., & Strömqvist, M. (2009). How has the stress on the financial markets developed? An index-based discussion. Riksbank Economic Commentaries, 13, www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/Ekonomiska%20kommentarer/2009/ek_kom_no13_09eng.pdf.
- Holló, D., Kremer, M., & Duca, M. (2012). CISS –Composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system. European Central Bank, Working Paper 1426.
- Hubrich, K., & Telow, R. J. (2012). Financial stress and economic dynamics the transmission of crises. European Central Bank Working Paper, No:1728.
- Illing, M., & Liu, Y. (2003). An index of financial stress for Canada. National Bank of Canada, Working Papers 14.
- Illing, M., & Liu, Y. (2006). Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada. Journal of Financial Stability, 2:243-265.
- IMF (International Monetary Found), (2016). IMF annual report 2016, finding solutions together. Financial Stability Report.
- IMF, (2017). http://www.imf.org/en/data
- Islami, M., & Kurz-Kim, J. R. (2013). A single composite financial stress indicator and its real impact in the Euro area. Bundesbank, Discussion Paper 31.
- Jakubik, P., & Slacik, T. (2013). Measuring financial (in)stability in emerging Europe: A new index-based approach. Financial Stability Report 25.
- Karanovic, G., & Karanovic, B. (2015). Developing an aggregate index for measuring financial stability in the Balkans. Procedia Economics and Finance, 33(2015), 3-7.
- Kemal, A. R. (2001). Debt accumulation and its implications for growth and poverty. The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 263-281.
- Kliesen, K., L, Owyang, M., T., & Vermann, E. K. (2012). Disentangling diverse measures: A survey of financial stress indexes. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Econ Review, 2012:369–397.
- Kowitt, B. (2009). For Mr. BRIC, Nations Meeting a Milestone, http://archive.fortune.com/2009/06/17/news/economy/goldman_sachs_jim_oneill_interview.fortune/index.htm, (28.11.2017).
- Liu, Z., Waggoner, D. F., & Zha, T. (2011). Source of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regimeswitching DSGE approach. Quantitative Economics, 2: 251-301.
- Loayza, N., & Ranciere, R. (2006). Financial development, financial fragility and growth. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 38, 1051-1076.
- Minsky, H. P. (1982). The financial instability hypothesis: Capitalist processes and the behavior of the economy. Hyman P. Minsky Archive. Paper 282. http://digitalcommons.bard.edu/hm_archive/282. (19.12.2015).
- Mishkin, F. S. (1998). International capital movements, financial volatility and financial ınstability. NBER, Working Paper 6390, 1-33.
- Mishkin, F. S. (1999). Global financial instability: Framework, events, issues. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(4), 3-20.
- Mishkin, F. S. (2004). The econonomics of money, banking and financial markets. 7. Baskı, U.S.A: Pearson-Addison Wesley.
- Mittnik, S., & Semmler, W. (2013). The real consequences of financial stress. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(8), 1479-1499.
- Nelson, W.R., & Perli, R. (2005). Selected indicators of financial stability. Fourth Joint Central Bank Research Conference, European Central Bank, No:8.
- O’Neill, J. (2001). Building better global economic BRICs, http://pro790512df.pic10.websiteonline.cn/upload/building-better-pdf_geEM.pdf, (28.11.2017).
- Örmeci, O. (2013). BRIC ülkeleri, http://ydemokrat.blogspot.com.tr/2013/03/bric-ulkeleri.html, (27.11.2017).
- Pesaran, H., M. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Working Paper 0435, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, H., M. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967- 1012.
- Pesaran, H., M. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence, Journal of Applied Economics, 22, 265-312.
- Pesaran, H., M., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 161, 182-202.
- Pesaran, H., M., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted lm test of error crosssection independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
- Pesaran, H, M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
- Pesaran, H. M., & Yamagata, T. (2012). Testing CAPM with a large number of assets. Discussion Papers 12/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Pradhan, R. P., Dasgupta, P., & Samadhan, B. (2013). Finance, development and economic growth in BRICS: A panel data analysis. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 11(6), 308-322.
- Rouabah, A. (2007). Mesure de la vulnérabilité du secteur bancaire luxembourgeois. Luxembourg Central Bank, Working Paper24.
- Roubini, N., & Mihm, S. (2011). Crisis economics. New York: Penguin Books.
- Roye, B. J. (2014). Financial stress and economic activity in Germany. Emprica, 41, 101-126.
- Sinenko, N., Titarenko, D., & Arins, M. (2013). The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework. Baltic Journal Economics, 13(2), 87-112.
- Slingenberg J., W., & Haan, J. (2011). Forecasting financial stress. De Nederlandsche Bank, Working Paper 292.
- Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information, American Economic Review, 71, 393-410.
- Sul, D., Phillips, P. C. B., & Choi, C. Y. (2005). Prewhitening bias in HAC estimation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67, 517-546.
- Şak, N. (2016). Panel birim kök testleri, Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri. Selahattin Güriş (Ed.), İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
- TCMB, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2016). Finansal istikrar raporu, Sayı:22.
- Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225–250.
- Ubiliva, D. (2014). On the relationship between financial instability and economic performance: Stressing the business of nonlinear modelling. Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s, Annual Meeting, 1-24.
- Uysal, D. (2011). Mikro iktisadi analiz, Konya: Çizgi Kitapevi.
- Ün, T. (2016). Stata ile panel veri analizi, stata ile panel veri modelleri. Selahattin Güriş (Ed.), İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
- Vermeulen, R., Hoeberichts, M., Vasicek, B., Zigraiova, D. Smidkova K., & Haan, J. (2015). Financial stress indices and financial crises. Open Economic Review, 26, 383–406.
- Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.
- World Bank. (2017). https://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/global-financial-development. Yerdelen-Tatoğlu, F. (2012). İleri panel veri analizi, stata uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
| APA | Erataş Sönmez F, UYSAL D (2018). Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. , 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| Chicago | Erataş Sönmez Filiz,UYSAL DOĞAN Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. (2018): 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| MLA | Erataş Sönmez Filiz,UYSAL DOĞAN Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. , 2018, ss.25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| AMA | Erataş Sönmez F,UYSAL D Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. . 2018; 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| Vancouver | Erataş Sönmez F,UYSAL D Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. . 2018; 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| IEEE | Erataş Sönmez F,UYSAL D "Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri." , ss.25 - 48, 2018. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| ISNAD | Erataş Sönmez, Filiz - UYSAL, DOĞAN. "Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri". (2018), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| APA | Erataş Sönmez F, UYSAL D (2018). Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| Chicago | Erataş Sönmez Filiz,UYSAL DOĞAN Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 9, no.1 (2018): 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| MLA | Erataş Sönmez Filiz,UYSAL DOĞAN Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol.9, no.1, 2018, ss.25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| AMA | Erataş Sönmez F,UYSAL D Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2018; 9(1): 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| Vancouver | Erataş Sönmez F,UYSAL D Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2018; 9(1): 25 - 48. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| IEEE | Erataş Sönmez F,UYSAL D "Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri." İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9, ss.25 - 48, 2018. 10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
| ISNAD | Erataş Sönmez, Filiz - UYSAL, DOĞAN. "Finansal İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRICT Ekonomileri". İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 9/1 (2018), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.20409/berj.2018.92 |
