IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS

ÇİĞDEM, GÜLGÜN

IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Gülgün ÇİĞDEM (Istanbul Gelişim University, School of Applied Science, Banking and Insurance Department, Istanbul, Turkey)

Akademik Hassasiyetler

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Yıl: 2018 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 10 Sayfa Aralığı: 171 - 188 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 09-10-2019

IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Öz:

As the current deficit damages the economy more than the current account surplus,researchers generally concentrate on the current account deficit and its sustainability. Thecurrent account deficit of the USA, which is the the highest deficit in the world, matches withthe current account surpluses of Germany, China, Japan and oil-exporting countries. Theexhaustibility oil resources, the emergence of renewable energy sources so as to take place ofoil, the slowdown in the global growth led by China and India, and the decrease in oil revenueswith the increase in the oil supply in other countries, generate anxiety in the economies of theGulf Countries. In this point, the examination of the sustainability of the current accountsurplus also gains importance. In this respect, this study, testing the sustainability of thecurrent account balance of the Gulf Economies, having current account surplus and being inthe position of oil exporters, is a valuable contribution to the literature. This paper analysessustainability of the current account surplus of Gulf Economies between 1980 and 2016 byutilising the minimum LM unit root test for stationary. As for the outcomes, the unit root nullhypothesis could be rejected, it is a constant process in Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait and UnitedArab Emirates. The results obtained are also important for the policymakers.

Anahtar Kelime:

KÖRFEZ EKONOMİLERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER FAZLASI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ? İKİ KIRILMALI BİRİM KÖK ANALİZİ İLE AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz:

Cari açık, cari fazladan daha fazla zarar verdiği için, araştırmalar açık ve sürdürülebilirliği üzerinde yoğunlaşmaktadır. En çok açık veren ABD’nin cari açığı, Almanya, Çin, Japonya ve petrol ihracatçısı ülkelerin fazlaları ile eşleşmektedir. Petrol gelirlerindeki azalma, Körfez Ülkeleri’nin ekonomilerinde sıkıntıya yol açmaktadır. İşte bu noktada, cari işlem fazlasının sürdürülebilirliğinin de incelenmesi önem kazanmaktadır. Bu açıdan bu çalışma, literatüre bir katkı niteliğindedir. Çalışmanın amacı, 1980-2016 döneminde Körfez ekonomilerinin cari hesap fazlasının, durağan minimum LM birim kök testi kullanılarak sürdürülebilirliğini araştırmaktadır. Sonuçlara göre birim kök boş hipotezi reddedilebilir, Bahreyn, İran, Kuveyt ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri'nde durağan bir süreç sözkonusudur. Sonuçlar politika yapıcılar için önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	ÇİĞDEM G (2018). IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. , 171 - 188.
Chicago	ÇİĞDEM GÜLGÜN IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. (2018): 171 - 188.
MLA	ÇİĞDEM GÜLGÜN IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. , 2018, ss.171 - 188.
AMA	ÇİĞDEM G IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. . 2018; 171 - 188.
Vancouver	ÇİĞDEM G IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. . 2018; 171 - 188.
IEEE	ÇİĞDEM G "IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS." , ss.171 - 188, 2018.
ISNAD	ÇİĞDEM, GÜLGÜN. "IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS". (2018), 171-188.

APA	ÇİĞDEM G (2018). IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 5(10), 171 - 188.
Chicago	ÇİĞDEM GÜLGÜN IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. Akademik Hassasiyetler 5, no.10 (2018): 171 - 188.
MLA	ÇİĞDEM GÜLGÜN IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. Akademik Hassasiyetler, vol.5, no.10, 2018, ss.171 - 188.
AMA	ÇİĞDEM G IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2018; 5(10): 171 - 188.
Vancouver	ÇİĞDEM G IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2018; 5(10): 171 - 188.
IEEE	ÇİĞDEM G "IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS." Akademik Hassasiyetler, 5, ss.171 - 188, 2018.
ISNAD	ÇİĞDEM, GÜLGÜN. "IS THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN GULF ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR UNIT ROOT TEST WITH TWO STRUCTURAL BREAKS". Akademik Hassasiyetler 5/10 (2018), 171-188.