FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY
Yıl: 2018 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 10 Sayfa Aralığı: 189 - 202 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 09-10-2019
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY
Öz: In this study, the causality between foreign direct investment, trade openness andeconomic growth was investigated. The analysis covers 81 observations during the 20years between 1998Q1-2018Q1 for export, import, FDI and GDP of Turkey. ADF unitroot, Engel Granger co-integration, Granger causality, VAR Decomposition, VARImpulse- Response tests and techniques were employed in the analysis. According to theresults, economic growth is explained by GDP at a 75% level, by import at a 15% level,by foreign direct investments at a 5% level and by export at a 5% level. However, theimpacts of foreign direct investment and export on economic growth are not statisticallysignificant. GDP and import are statistically significant on economic growth in the firsttwo quarters, but insignificant for subsequent quarters. There is a uni-directionalcausality from import to economic growth. As a result, import and GDP are thedeterminants of economic growth in very short-term, while the effects of foreign directinvestments and exports on growth are insignificant in Turkey.
Anahtar Kelime: DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, TİCARİ SERBESTLEŞME VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ
Öz: Bu çalışmada, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ticari serbestleşme ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Analiz, Türkiye için 1998Q1-2018Q1 arasındaki 20 yıllık dönemde 81 gözlemi kapsamaktadır. Analizde, ADF birim kök, Engel Granger eşbütünleşme, Granger nedensellik, VAR ayrıştırma ve VAR etki-tepki test ve teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre; ithalat, ihracat, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve iktisadi büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki yoktur. İktisadi büyümenin yaklaşık % 75’i GSYİH tarafından, % 15’i ithalat, % 5’i doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve %5’i ise ihracat tarafından açıklanmaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve ihracatın, büyüme üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. GSYİH ve ithalat, iktisadi büyüme üzerinde ilk iki çeyrekte istatistiksel olarak anlamlı çıkmasına karşın, sonraki çeyreklerde anlamlılığını yitirmektedir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de ithalat ve GSYİH, iktisadi büyümenin çok kısa dönemde belirleyicisi iken, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracatın büyüme üzerindeki etkileri anlamlı değildir.
Anahtar Kelime: Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
- Asghar, N. & Hussain, Z. (2014). Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Recent Evidence from Panel Data. Pakistan Economic and Social Review. Vol.52(2), 99-126.
- Acaravcı, A. & Öztürk İ. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from EU Countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting. Vol.2, 52-67.
- Adegboyega, S. B. & Odusanya, I. A., (2014). Empirical Analysis of Trade Openness, Capital Formation, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Nigerian Experience. The International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention. Vol.1(1), 36 -50.
- Ahmad, M.H., Alam, S. & Butt, S.M. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review. Vol.42(4), 715-723.
- Babatunde, A. (2011). Trade Openness, Infrastructure, FDI and Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries. Journal of Management Policy and Practice. Vol.12(7), 27-36.
- Balasubramanyam, V., Salisu M. & Sapsford, D. (1996). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries. The Economic Journal. Vol.106(434), 92-105.
- Belloumi, M. (2014). The Relationship between Trade, FDI and Economic Growth in Tunisia: An Application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. Economic Systems. Vol.38(2), 269-287.
- Borensztein, E., Gregorio, J. D., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics. Vol.45, 115–135.
- Breitung, J. (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics. Vol.15.161–177.
- Chowdhury, A., & Mavrotas, G. (2006). FDI and Growth: What Causes What? The World Economy. Vol.29, 9–19.
- Dawson, P.J. (2006). The Export-Income Relationship and Trade Liberalization in Bangladesh. Journal of Policy Modeling. Vol.28, 889-896.
- De Mello, L. R. (1999). Foreign Direct Investment-led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data. Oxford Economic Papers, 51. No.1, 133–151.
- Dritsaki, C. & Stiakakis, E. (2014). Foreign Direct Investments, Exports, and Economic Growth in Croatia: A Time Series Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance. Vol.14(0), 181-190.
- Dutta, D. & Ahmed, N. (2001). Trade Liberalization and Industrial Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis. University of Sydney, Australia. (Working paper series NWS 2006).
- Estrada, M.A. and Yap, S.F. (2006). The Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM - Model). Journal of Policy Modelling. Vol.28, 235-246.
- Fetahi-Vehabi, M. Sadikub, L. & Petkovskic, M. (2015). Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: An Evidence for South East European Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance. Vol.19, 17-26.
- Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E. (1989). Product Development and International Trade. The Journal of Political Economy. Vol.97(6), 1261-1283.
- Hansen, H., & Rand, J. (2006). On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries. The World Economy. Vol.29, 21–41.
- Hofmann, P. (2013). The Impact of International Trade and FDI on Economic Growth and Technological Change. Contributions to Economics. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. ISBN: 978-3-642-34580-7.
- Hossain, A. & Hossain, M.K. (2012). Empirical Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Output in South Asian Countries: A Study on Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. International Business Research. Vol.5(1), 9–21.
- Iqbal, M. S., Shaikh, F.M.& Shar, A.H. (2010). Causality Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Economic Growth in Pakistan. Asian Social Science. Vol.6(9), 82.
- Jayachandran, G. & Seilan A. (2010). A Causal Relationship between Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth for India. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. Vol.42, 74-87.
- Katırcıoglu, S. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Turkey: An Empirical Investigation by the Bounds Test for Co-integration and Causality Tests. Ekonomska Istraživanja. VOl.22, 1–9.
- Klasra, M.A. (2011). Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan and Turkey: An Investigation Using Bounds Test. Quality & Quantity International Journal of Methodology. Vol.45(1), 223–231.
- Liu, X. & Peter Burridge. (2002). Relationships between Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: Evidence from China. Applied Economics. Vol.34, 1433 - 1440.
- Liu, X., Shu, C, & Sinclai, P. (2009). Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Asian Economies. Applied Economics. Taylor & Francis (Routledge), Vol.41(13), 1603-1612.
- Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
- Mahmoodi, M. & Mahmoodi E. (2016). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Panels of Developing Countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. Vol.29(1), 938–949.
- Makki, S. S. & Somwaru, A. (2004). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol.86(3), 795-801.
- Miankhel, A. K., Thangavelu, S. M., & Kalirajan, K. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth in Selected Emerging Countries: Multivariate VAR Analysis. MPRA Paper, No. 22763.
- Nath, H. K. (2009). Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies. Comparative Economic Studies. Vol.51, 20–50.
- Naveed, A. &Shabbir, G. (2006). Trade Openness, FDI and Economic Growth: A Panel Study. Pakistan Economic and Social Review. Vol. 44(1), 137-154.
- Romer, P.M. (1986), Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy. Vol.94, 1002-1037.
- Sevüktekin, M. & Çınar, M. (2014). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Bursa: Dora. Szkorupová, Z. (2014). A Causal Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Export for Slovakia. Procedia Economics and Finance. Vol.15(0), 123-128.
- Şen, A. & Karagöz M. (2005). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Büyüme ve İhracata Etkisi. Sosyal Bilimler Konferansı Dergisi. Vol.50, 1063-1076.
- Wijeweera, A., Villano, R. & Dollery, B. (2010). Economic Growth and FDI Inflows; A Stochastic Frontier Analysis. Journal of Developing Areas. Vol.43(2), 143-158.
- Yao, S., & Wei, K. (2007). Economic Growth in the Presence of FDI: The Perspective of Newly Industrialising Economies. Journal of Comparative Economics. Vol.35, 211-234.
- Yılmazer, M. (2010). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Deneme. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, Vol.8(1), 241-260.
- Zhang, K.H. & Song, S. (2001). Promoting Exports: The Role of Inward FDI in China. China Economic Review.Vol.11(4), 385-396.
| APA | ERKİŞİ K (2018). FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. , 189 - 202. |
| Chicago | ERKİŞİ KEMAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. (2018): 189 - 202. |
| MLA | ERKİŞİ KEMAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. , 2018, ss.189 - 202. |
| AMA | ERKİŞİ K FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. . 2018; 189 - 202. |
| Vancouver | ERKİŞİ K FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. . 2018; 189 - 202. |
| IEEE | ERKİŞİ K "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY." , ss.189 - 202, 2018. |
| ISNAD | ERKİŞİ, KEMAL. "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY". (2018), 189-202. |
| APA | ERKİŞİ K (2018). FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 5(10), 189 - 202. |
| Chicago | ERKİŞİ KEMAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler 5, no.10 (2018): 189 - 202. |
| MLA | ERKİŞİ KEMAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler, vol.5, no.10, 2018, ss.189 - 202. |
| AMA | ERKİŞİ K FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2018; 5(10): 189 - 202. |
| Vancouver | ERKİŞİ K FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2018; 5(10): 189 - 202. |
| IEEE | ERKİŞİ K "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY." Akademik Hassasiyetler, 5, ss.189 - 202, 2018. |
| ISNAD | ERKİŞİ, KEMAL. "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY". Akademik Hassasiyetler 5/10 (2018), 189-202. |
