Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes
Yıl: 2003 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 91 - 103 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes
Öz: Bu çalışmada, Coulomb gerilme yöntemi kullanılarak, 1999 yılı öncesinde Marmara bölgesinde oluşan büyük depremlerin 17 Ağustos 1999 izmit ve 12 Kasım 1999 Düzce depremlerini nasıl etkilediği, izmit depreminin Düzce depremine olan etkisi ve günümüzde Marmara bölgesindeki deprem tehlikesi araştırıldı. InSAR ve GPS verileriyle bulunan fay parametrelerinin kullanıldığı Coulomb gerilim hesaplamaları İzmit depreminin, önceki depremlerden kaynaklanan statik gerilme artışının oluştuğu bir alanda meydana geldiğini göstermektedir. 1999 yılı öncesi depremlerin Düzce Fayı üzerindeki gerilimi azaltmasına rağmen, Düzce depreminin İzmit depreminden kaynaklanan yüksek gerilim artışı nedeniyle tetiklendiği sonucu bulunmaktadır. Düzce ve öncesinde oluşan depremler batı ve doğu Marmara bölgesindeki gerilmeyi 5 bar'ın üzerinde arttırmıştır, intersismik GPS gözlemlerine dayalı modellerden elde edilen Coulomb hesaplamalarından, KAFZ'nun kuzey kolu üzerinde yıllık gerilim miktarının 0.37 bar civarında olduğu ortaya çıkmaktadır. Dolayısı ile 5 bar'lık gerilme artışı normalde 12-13 yılda birikmektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, önceki depremler Marmara Denizi'nde meydana gelecek bir depremi 12-13 yıl öne almıştır. Dolayısı ile Marmara Denizi altındaki faylar özellikle İstanbul için ciddi bir deprem potansiyeli oluşturmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Coulomb gerilme etkileşimleri ve 1999 Marmara depremleri
Öz: The effects of previous earthquakes on the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, the influence of the İzmit earthquake on the Düzce earthquake, and the seismic hazard in the Marmara region are investigated using Coulomb failure stress. Calculation of the Coulomb stress changes using the fault parameters deduced from the modelling of the coseismic Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) and GPS data shows that the İzmit earthquake occurred where the Coulomb stress was increased by the previous events. Despite the stress decrease on the Düzce Fault due to the events before 1999, the Düzce earthquake appears to have been triggered by the high increase in the static Coulomb stress transferred by the İzmit earthquake. The Düzce and the previous earthquakes increased the static stress in western and eastern Marmara by over 5 bars. Calculation of secular stress loading based on the modelling of interseismic GPS measurements shows that stress accumulation along the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone is 0.37 bars per year. Thus, a stress increase of 5 bars corresponds to an increase normally accumulated in 12-13 years by secular loading due to continuous plate motion. In other words, the previous earthquakes brought forward the next earthquake in the Sea of Marmara by 12 years. The faults in this region therefore pose a serious seismic hazard, particularly for İstanbul.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Derleme Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | Cakir Z, BARKA A, EVREN E (2003). Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. , 91 - 103. |
| Chicago | Cakir Ziyadin,BARKA Aykut A.,EVREN Emre Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. (2003): 91 - 103. |
| MLA | Cakir Ziyadin,BARKA Aykut A.,EVREN Emre Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. , 2003, ss.91 - 103. |
| AMA | Cakir Z,BARKA A,EVREN E Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. . 2003; 91 - 103. |
| Vancouver | Cakir Z,BARKA A,EVREN E Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. . 2003; 91 - 103. |
| IEEE | Cakir Z,BARKA A,EVREN E "Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes." , ss.91 - 103, 2003. |
| ISNAD | Cakir, Ziyadin vd. "Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes". (2003), 91-103. |
| APA | Cakir Z, BARKA A, EVREN E (2003). Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 12(1), 91 - 103. |
| Chicago | Cakir Ziyadin,BARKA Aykut A.,EVREN Emre Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 12, no.1 (2003): 91 - 103. |
| MLA | Cakir Ziyadin,BARKA Aykut A.,EVREN Emre Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, vol.12, no.1, 2003, ss.91 - 103. |
| AMA | Cakir Z,BARKA A,EVREN E Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences. 2003; 12(1): 91 - 103. |
| Vancouver | Cakir Z,BARKA A,EVREN E Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences. 2003; 12(1): 91 - 103. |
| IEEE | Cakir Z,BARKA A,EVREN E "Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes." Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 12, ss.91 - 103, 2003. |
| ISNAD | Cakir, Ziyadin vd. "Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara earthquakes". Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 12/1 (2003), 91-103. |
