Yıl: 2019 Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 21 - 32 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002 İndeks Tarihi: 01-09-2020

The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel

Öz:
Exploring dynamics of household final consumption is an important concern for policy-makers. Turkeyhad witnessed various financial shocks and crises over the last two decades. These turbulent economicperiods affected consumption behaviour and therefore, other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, weexamine the linkage between household final consumption and wealth in Turkey, arising from equityand housing market channels over the period from 1998 Q1 to 2016 Q2. We employ ARDL and FMOLSmodels in order to analyse long-term relationship and then, variance decomposition and impulseresponse analysis are used for verifying the effects of shocks. The results suggest that income, credit andhousing wealth are positively, interest rate and equity market wealth are negatively associated withconsumption. Variance decomposition and impulse response analyses imply that interest rate drivenshocks may cause to a decline in asset prices and so aggregate consumption through consumptionwealth channel. These evidences may be beneficial for policymakers to understand the role of interestrate and asset prices on the consumption-wealth channel in Turkey.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Ackley, G., 1951. The wealth-saving relationship. J. Political Econ. 59 (2), 154e161.
  • Akçin, O., Alper, C.E., 1999. Aggregate consumption and permanent income: an empirical investigation for Turkey. METU Stud. Dev. 26 (1e2), 1e23.
  • Akkoyunlu, S., 2002. Modelling consumers' expenditure in Turkey, 1962-1994. In: School of Economics, Seminar Series 2005. University of Cape Town. http:// www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Economics/Seminars.
  • Altan, M., Goktürk, € _ I.E., 2007. Türkiye’de Kredi Kartlarinin Toplam Ozel Nihai € Tüketim Harcamalarina Etkisi: Bir Çoklu Regresyon Analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 18, 25e47.
  • Ando, A., Modigliani, F., 1963. The life cycle hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests. Am. Econ. Rev. 53, 55e84.
  • Apergis, N., Simo-Kengne, B., Gupta, R., 2014. The long-run relationship between consumption, house prices and stock prices in South Africa: evidence from provincial-level data. J. Real Estate Lit. 22, 83e99.
  • Aşırım, O., 1996. Alternative Theories of Consumption and an Application to the Turkish Economy. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Aydede, Y., 2008. Aggregate consumption function and public social security: the first time-series study for a developing country, Turkey. Appl. Econ. 40 (14), 1807e1826.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., Mestre, R., 1998. Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. J. Time Ser. Anal. 19 (3), 267e283.
  • Belsky, E., Prakken, J., 2004. Housing Wealth Effects: Housing's Impact on Wealth Accumulation, Wealth Distribution and Consumer Spending. National Center for Real Estate Research Report W04-13. Harvard University, Boston.
  • Benjamin, J.D., Chinloy, P., Donald, G.J., 2004. Real estate versus financial wealth in consumption. J. Real Estate Finance Econ. 29, 341e354.
  • Bernanke, B.S., Gertler, M., Watson, M., 1997. Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. 1, 91e142.
  • Bertaut, C., 2002. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s. IFDP Working Paper 724. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
  • Blinder, A.S., 1975. Distribution effects and the aggregate consumption function. J. Political Econ. 83, 447e475.
  • Bootle, R., 1981. How important is it to defeat inflation-the evidence. Three Banks Rev. 132, 23e47.
  • Boskin, M.J., 1978. Taxation, saving and the rate of interest. J. Political Econ. 86 (2), 3e27.
  • Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., Painter, G., 2009. Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: new evidence from micro data. Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 39 (1), 79e89.
  • Bover, O., 2005. Wealth Effects on Consumption: Microeconometric Estimates from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (No. 0522).
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M., 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B 37 (2), 149e163.
  • Campbell, J.Y., Mankiw, N.G., 1989. Consumption, income and interest rates: reinterpreting the time series evidence. NBER working paper series, working paper No. 2924. NBER Macroecon. Annu. 4, 185e216.
  • Carroll, C.D., Misuzu, O., Slacalek, J., 2011. How large are housing and financial wealth effects? A new approach. J. Money Credit Bank. 43, 55e79.
  • Case, K.E., Quigley, J.M., Shiller, R.J., 2001. Comparing Wealth Effects: the Stock Market versus the Housing Market. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 8606. NBER, Cambridge.
  • Case, K.E., Quigley, J.M., Shiller, R.J., 2005. Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market. Adv. Macroecon. 5 https://doi.org/10.2202/ 1534-6013.1235.
  • Ceritoglu, E., 2003. Consumption, Income and Liquidity Constraints: the Case of Turkish Economy. Master of Science Thesis submitted to the. Department of Economics of Graduate School of Social Sciences (Ankara: Middle East Technical University.
  • Ceritoglu, E., 2013. Household Expectations and Household Consumption Expen- ditures: the Case of Turkey. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey working paper: 13/10.
  • Ceritoglu, E., 2017. The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey. Cent. Bank Rev. 17 (3), 99e110.
  • Chen, J., 2006. Re-evaluating the association between housing wealth and aggregate consumption: new evidence from Sweden. J. Hous. Econ. 15 (4), 321e348.
  • Cilasun, S.M., 2009. Income and, Consumption and Saving Behavior of Turkish Household. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Middle East Technical University.
  • Cilasun, S.M., Kirdar, M.G., 2015. Durable and nondurable consumption, health and education expenditures over the life-cycle in Turkey. METU Stud. Dev. 42 (2), 247.
  • Cooper, D., Dynan, K., 2016. Wealth effects and macroeconomic dynamics. J. Econ. Surv. 30 (1), 34e55.
  • Coskun, Y., Sencer, A.B., Morri, G., Alp, E., 2018. Wealth effects on household final consumption: stock and housing market channels. Int. J. Financ. Stud. 6 (2), 57.
  • Davidson, J., Hendry, D.F., Srba, F., Yeo, S., 1978. Econometric modelling of the aggregate time series relationship between consumer's expenditure and income in the UK. Econ. J. 88, 661e692.
  • Davis, M.A., Palumbo, M.G., 2001. A Primer on the Economics and Time Series Econometrics of Wealth Effects.” Federal Reserve Board. Finance and Economics Discussion Paper No. 2001-09. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
  • Demirezen, O., 2015. Türkiye € ’de Kredilerin Ozel Tüketim Harcamalarina Etkisi. € Ministry of Development of the Republic of Turkey. Planning Expertise Thesis. Publication No: 2941.
  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A., 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 74 (366a), 427e431.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., 1990. Macroeconomics, fifth ed. McGraw-Hill College, New York.
  • Duesenberry, J.S., 1949. Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Duygan, B., 2005. Aggregate Shocks, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Durable Goods Purchases: Evidence from Turkey's 1994 Financial Crisis. EUI Finance and Consumption Program Working Paper.
  • Duygan, B., Güner, N., 2007. Income and consumption inequality in Turkey: what role does education play? In: Altug, S., Filiztekin, A. (Eds.), The Turkish Econ- omy: the Real Economy, Corporate Governance and Reform and Stabilization Policy. Routledge Studies in Middle Eastern Studies, pp. 63e91.
  • Dvornak, N., Kohler, M., 2003. Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia. Research Discussion Paper, No. 2003- 07. Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney.
  • Engelhardt, G.V., 1996. House prices and home owner saving behavior. Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 26, 313e336.
  • Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W., 1987. Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: J. Econom. Soc. 251e276.
  • Fisher, I., 1930. The Theory of Interest. Macmillan, New York, pp. 399e451, 1930.
  • Fisher, L.A., Voss, G.M., 2004. Consumption, wealth and expected stock returns in Australia. Econ. Rec. 80 (251), 359e372.
  • Friedman, M., 1948. A monetary and fiscal framework for economic stability. Am. Econ. Rev. 38, 245e264.
  • Friedman, M., 1957. A Theory of the Consumption Function. National Bureau of Economic Research, General Series, No. 63. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  • Guiso, L., Paiella, M., Visco, I., 2006. Do Capital Gains Affect Consumption? Estimates of Wealth Effects from Italian Households' Behavior. Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Stabilization: Essays in Memory of Albert Ando. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 46e82.
  • Gylfason, T., 1981. Interest rates, inflation, and the aggregate consumption function. Rev. Econ. Stat. 233e245.
  • Hall, R.E., 1978. Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence. J. Political Econ. 86 (6), 971e987.
  • Hall, R.E., 1988. Intertemporal substitution in consumption. J. Political Econ. 96, 339e357.
  • Hamburg, B., Hoffmann, M., Keller, J., 2008. Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany. Empir. Econ. 34 (3), 451e476.
  • Hamburger, M.J., 1967. Interest rates and the demand for consumer durable goods. Am. Econ. Rev. 57, 1131e1153.
  • Hansen, H.J., 1996. The Impact of Interest Rates on Private Consumption in Germany. Discussion Paper 3/96. Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt.
  • Harris, R., Sollis, R., 2003. Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting. Wiley, Chichester, ISBN 9780470844434.
  • Heien, D.M., 1972. Demographic effects and the multiperiod consumption function. J. Political Econ. 80, 125e138.
  • Houthakker, H.S., Taylor, L.D., 1970. Consumer Demand in the United States: Analyses and Projections, second ed. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Iacoviello, M., 2004. Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis. J. Hous. Econ. 13 (4), 304e320.
  • Jaramillo, L., Chailloux, A., 2015. It's not all fiscal: effects of income, fiscal policy, and wealth on private consumption (No. 15-112). International Monetary Fund.
  • Jawadi, F., Soparnot, R., Sousa, R.M., 2015. Assessing financial and housing wealth effects through the lens of a nonlinear framework. Res. Int. Bus. Finance 39, 840e850.
  • Juster, F.T., Taylor, L.D., 1975. Towards a theory of saving behavior. Am. Econ. Rev. 65, 203e209.
  • Juster, F.T., Wachtel, P., 1972. A note on inflation and the saving rate. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. 3, 765e778.
  • Kerdrain, C., 2011. How Important Is Wealth for Explaining Household Consumption over the Recent Crisis?: an Empirical Study for the United States, Japan and the Euro Area (No. 869). OECD Publishing.
  • Keynes, J.:M., 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan, London.
  • Kishor, N.K., 2007. Does consumption respond more to housing wealth than to financial market wealth? If so, why? J. Real Estate Finance Econ. 35 (4), 427e448.
  • Koop, G., Potter, S.M., Strachan, R.W., 2008. Re-Examining the consumptionewealth relationship: the role of model uncertainty. J. Money Credit Bank. 40 (2-3), 341e367.
  • Kuznets, S., 1946. National Product since 1869. National Bureau of Economic Research, Princeton University Press, New York.
  • Labhard, V., Sterne, G., Young, C., 2005. The Wealth Effects on Consumption in Industrialized Countries. Bank of England Working Papers, No. 275. Bank of England, London.
  • Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S.C., 2004. Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: Reevaluating the wealth effect on consumption. Am. Econ. Rev. 94, 276e299.
  • Lucas Jr., R.E., 1976. Econometric policy evaluation: a critique. In: CarnegieRochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 1. North-Holland, pp. 19e46.
  • Ludvigson, S., Steindel, C., 1998. How important is the stock market effect on consumption? FRBNY Econom. Pol. Rev. 5, 29e51.
  • Ludwig, A., Sløk, T., 2002. The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countries. Working Paper WP/02/1. IMF, Washington.
  • Ludwig, A., Sløk, T., 2004. The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD countries. Top. Macroecon. 4, 1e24.
  • MacDonald, G., Mullineux, A., Sensarma, R., 2011. Asymmetric effects of interest rate changes: the role of the consumption-wealth channel. Appl. Econ. 43 (16), 1991e2001.
  • Mankiw, N.G., 1982. Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods. J. Monet. Econ. 10 (3), 417e425.
  • Mehra, Y.P., 2001. The wealth effect in empirical life-cycle aggregate consumption equations. Econom. Q. 87, 45e67.
  • Mishkin, F.S., 1976. Illiquidity, consumer durable expenditure, and monetary policy. Am. Econ. Rev. 66, 642e654.
  • Modigliani, F., Brumberg, R., 1954. Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. In: Kurihara, K.K. (Ed.), Post-keynesian Economics. Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, pp. 388e436.
  • Modigliani, F., Brumberg, R., 1979. Utility analysis and the consumption function: an attempt at integration. In: Abel, A. (Ed.), The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani. MIT Press, Cambridge, p. 2.
  • Muellbauer, J., 1994. The assessment: consumer expenditure. Oxf. Rev. Econ. Pol. 10 (2), 1e41.
  • Naka, A., Tufte, D., 1997. Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems. Appl. Econ. 29 (12), 1593e1603.
  • Narayan, S., Narayan, P.K., 2004. Determinants of demand for Fiji's exports: an empirical investigation. Develop. Econ. 42 (1), 95e112.
  • Ozcan, K.M., Günay, A., Ertaç, S., 2003. Determinants of private savings behavior in € Turkey”. Appl. Econ. 35, 1405e1416.
  • Ozer, Y.B., Tang, K.K., 2008. An Empirical Analysis of Financial and Housing Wealth € Effects on Consumption in Turkey. University of Queensland.
  • Ozmen, E., Yavan, Z.A., 1999. Aggregate Consumption in Turkey: an Empirical € Investigation. METU ERC. Working Paper no: 99/22.
  • Paiella, M., Pistaferri, L., 2017. Decomposing the wealth effect on consumption. Rev. Econ. Stat. 99 (4), 710e721.
  • Paiella, M., 2007. Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy. J. Macroecon. 29, 189e205.
  • Paiella, M., 2009. The stock market, housing and consumer spending: a survey of the evidence on wealth effects. J. Econ. Surv. 23, 947e973.
  • Patinkin, D., 1948. Price flexibility and full employment. Am. Econ. Rev. XXXVIII, 534e564.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econom. 16 (3), 289e326.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., Hansen, B.E., 1990. Statistical inference in instrumental variable regression with I(1) processes. Rev. Econ. Stud. 57 (1), 99e125.
  • Pigou, A.C., 1941. Employment and Equilibrium. Macmillan Co, London, pp. 96e130.
  • Poterba, J.M., 2000. Stock market wealth and consumption. J. Econ. Perspect. 14, 99e118.
  • Romer, C.D., 1990. The great crash and the onset of the great depression. Q. J. Econ. 105, 597e624.
  • Shen, X., Holmes, M.J., Lim, S., 2015. Wealth effects and consumption: a panel VAR approach. Int. Rev. Appl. Econ. 29 (2), 221e237.
  • Simo-Kengne, B.D., Gupta, R., Bittencourt, M., 2013. The impact of house prices on consumption in South Africa: evidence from provincial-level panel VARs. Hous. Stud. 28, 1133e1154. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2013.804492.
  • Sims, C.A., 1980. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48, 1e48.
  • Sims, C.A., Zha, T., 1999. Error bands for impulse responses. Econometrica 67, 1113e1155.
  • Sivri, U., Eryüzlü, O.G.H., 2010. Rasyonel Beklentiler-Yas € ¸ am Boyu sürekli Gelir Hipotezinin Testi. Ekonometri ve _ Istatistik e-Dergisi. 11, 90e99.
  • Slacalek, J., 2009. What drive personal consumption? The role of housing and financial wealth. B. E. J. Macroecon. 9 https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1555.
  • Sousa, R.M., 2009. Wealth Effects on Consumption Evidence from the Euro Area. Working Paper No. 1050. European Central Bank, Frankfurt.
  • Springer, W.L., 1977. Consumer Spending and the Rate of Inflation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp. 299e306.
  • Springer, W.L., 1975. Did the 1968 surcharge really work? Am. Econ. Rev. 65 (4), 644e659.
  • Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 1993. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: J. Econom. Soc. 783e820.
  • Tan, A., Voss, G., 2003. Consumption and wealth in Australia. Econ. Rec. 79 (244), 39e56.
  • Taylor, L.D., 1971. Saving out of different Types of in- come. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. 2, 383e415.
  • Tsai, I.C., Lee, C.F., Chiang, M.C., 2012. The asymmetric wealth effect in the US housing and stock markets: evidence from the threshold cointegration model. J. Real Estate Finance Econ. 45 (4), 1005e1020.
  • Van Rijckeghem, C., Üçer, M., 2009. The Evolution and Determinants of the Turkish Private Saving Rate: what Lessons for Policy? Koç University-TÜS_ IAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Weber, W.E., 1975. Interest rates, inflation, and consumer expenditures. Am. Econ. Rev. 65 (5), 843e858.
  • Weber, W.E., 1970. The effect of interest rates on aggregate consumption. Am. Econ. Rev. 60 (4), 591e600.
  • Wright, C., 1969. Saving and the Rate of Interest' in AC Harberger and MJ Bailey. The Taxation of Income from Capital. Brookings Institution, Washington.
  • Wright, C., 1967. Some evidence on the interest elasticity of consumption. Am. Econ. Rev. 57 (4), 850e855.
  • Yalciner, K., Coskun, Y., 2014. Conditions of mortgage market development: a critical Emprical review for Turkey. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans 29 (340), 27e68.
  • Yükseler, Z., Türkan, E., 2008. “Türkiye’de Hanehalkı: _ Is¸ gücü, Gelir, Harcama ve Yoksulluk Açısından Analizi”. TÜS_ IAD-T/2008-03/455.
  • Zhang, C., Zhou, K., Yang, S., Shao, Z., 2017. Exploring the transformation and upgrading of China's economy using electricity consumption data: a VAReVEC based model. Phys. Stat. Mech. Appl. 473, 144e155.
APA ALP E, Seven Ü (2019). The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. , 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
Chicago ALP Esra,Seven Ünal The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. (2019): 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
MLA ALP Esra,Seven Ünal The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. , 2019, ss.21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
AMA ALP E,Seven Ü The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. . 2019; 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
Vancouver ALP E,Seven Ü The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. . 2019; 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
IEEE ALP E,Seven Ü "The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel." , ss.21 - 32, 2019. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
ISNAD ALP, Esra - Seven, Ünal. "The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel". (2019), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
APA ALP E, Seven Ü (2019). The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
Chicago ALP Esra,Seven Ünal The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review 19, no.1 (2019): 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
MLA ALP Esra,Seven Ünal The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review, vol.19, no.1, 2019, ss.21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
AMA ALP E,Seven Ü The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review. 2019; 19(1): 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
Vancouver ALP E,Seven Ü The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review. 2019; 19(1): 21 - 32. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
IEEE ALP E,Seven Ü "The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel." Central Bank Review, 19, ss.21 - 32, 2019. 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
ISNAD ALP, Esra - Seven, Ünal. "The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel". Central Bank Review 19/1 (2019), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002