Yıl: 2020 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 51 - 61 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.24181/tarekoder.671254 İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach

Öz:
Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial dimensions of the convergence process in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, public expenditures, and migration in 81 provinces of Turkey for the 2008-2018 period.Design/methodology/approach: For this purpose, spatial panel data estimation methodology with Driscoll-Kraay estimator is used to capture the effect of space, which is a necessary condition to prevent biased estimates of convergence.Findings: It is clear that structural problems in the agricultural sector restrict interaction with the non-agricultural sector in the provinces and this limits the convergence effect on the agricultural sector. Limited convergence in agricultural sector causes continued income gap between rich and poor provinces in Turkey. In addition to this, migration from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector has an impact on the convergence of both sectors between provinces. Moreover, public expenditures appears to have no direct, indirect or total effect on both agriculture and non-agricultural sectors.Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to show the spatial dimensions of convergence at sectoral level for provinces of Turkey with relation to public expenditures and migration across agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.
Anahtar Kelime: Agricultural Development Spatial Analysis Convergence Analysis

Türkiye'de Tarım ve Tarım Dışı Sektörlerde Yakınsama, Kamu Harcamaları ve Göç: Mekansal Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

Öz:
Amaç: Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 81 il bazında 2008-2018 yılları arası verileri kullanılarak tarım ve tarımdışı sektörler ile kamu harcamaları ve göç arasındaki ilişkilerin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır.Tasarım/metodoloji/yaklaşım: Yakınsama analizine ilişkin sapmasız tahminciler elde edebilmek için Driscoll-Kraay tahmincisiyle mekansal panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır.Bulgular: Araştırma sonuçları, tarım sektöründeki yapısal problemler, tarım dışı sektörler ile tarım sektörünün etkileşimini iller bazında kısıtladığını ve bu durumun tarım sektöründeki yakınsamayı sınırlandırdırğını ortaya koymaktadır. Tarımdaki sınırlı yakınsama zengin ve fakir iller arasındaki gelir farklılığının devam etmesine neden olmaktadır. Bunun yanında araştıama sonuçları, tarım sektöründen tarım dışı sektörlere yönelik göç olgusu iller arasında sektörler bazında yakınsama üzerinde etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca kamu harcamalarının tarım ve tarım dışı sektörler üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı tespit edilmiştir.Özgünlük/değer: Bu çalışmanın özgünlüğü, Türkiye’de iller bazında sektörel yakınsamanın mekansal boyutları ve bunun göç ve kamu harcamaları ile ilişkisinin ilk defa ele alınmasıdır.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Abdioğlu, Z. and Uysal T. (2013). Türkiye'de Bölgeler Arası Yakınsama: Panel Birim Kök Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27(3): 125-143.
  • Abramovitz, M. (1986). Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind. The Journal of Economic History, 46(2): 385-406.
  • Aldan, A. and Gaygısız E. (2006). Convergence across Provinces of Turkey: A Spatial Analysis. Research and Monetary Policy Department Working Paper No: 06/09, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara.
  • Allison, P.D. 2012. Logistic Regression Using SAS: Theory and Application. Second Edition. Cary: SAS Publication, p.339.
  • Arbia, G. and Paelinck, J.H.P. (2003). Economic Convergence or Divergence? Modeling the Interregional Dynamics of EU Regions, 1985-1999. Journal of Geographical Systems, 5: 291-314.
  • Armstrong, H.W. (1995). Convergence among the Regions of the European Union, 1950-1990. Papers in Regional Science, 74 (2): 143-152.
  • Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1991). Convergence Across States and Regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 22(1): 107-182.
  • Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1991). Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 100 (2): 223-251.
  • Baumol, W.J. (1986). Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show. The American Economic Review , 76(5): 1072-1085.
  • Baumol, W.J. and Wolff, E.N. (1988). Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Reply. The American Economic Review, 78(5): 1155-1159.
  • Baypınar, M.B. (2010). Economic Globalization and Regional Inequalities in Turkey: A Spatial Analysis on Productivity Growth and Convergence. PhD Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul.
  • Bell, K.P. and Bockstael, N.E. (2000). Applying the Generalized-Moments Estimation Approach to Spatial Problems Involving Micro-Level Data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(1): 72-82.
  • Bernard, A.B. and Durlauf, S.N. (1995). Convergence in International Output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10(2): 97-108.
  • Bernard, A.B. and Jones, C.I. (1996). Productivity across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1): 135-146.
  • Castellacci, F., Los. B., and De Vries, G.J. (2014). Sectoral Productivity Trends: Convergence Islands in Oceans of Non- Convergence. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 24(5): 983-1007.
  • Dall'erba, S. (2005). Productivity Convergence and Spatial Dependence among Spanish Regions. Journal of Geographical Systems, 7: 207-227.
  • De Long, J.B. and Summers, L.H. (1991). Equipment Investment and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2): 445-502.
  • DiCecio, R. and Gascon, C. S. (2010). Income Convergence in the United States: A Tale of Migration and Urbanization. Annals of Regional Science, 45, 365-377.
  • Dowrick, S. and Nguyen D. (1989). OECD Comparative Economic Growth 1950-1985: Catch-Up and Convergence. The American Economic Review, 79 (5): 1010-1030.
  • Driscoll, J.C. and Kraay, A.C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4): 549-560.
  • Elhorst, J.P. 2014. Spatial Econometrics from Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. Groningen: Springer, p.117.
  • Elhorst, J.P., Piras, G., and Arbia, G. (2010). Growth and Convergence in a Multi-Regional Model with Space-Time Dynamics. Geographical Analysis, 42(3): 338-355.
  • Enflo, K., Lundh, C., and Prado, S. (2013). The Role of Migration in Regional Wage Convergence: Evidence from Sweden 1860- 1940. Explorations in Economic History, 52, 93-110.
  • Ertur, C. and Koch, W. (2007). Growth, Technological Interdependence and Spatial Externalities: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(6):1033-1062
  • Evans. P. and Karras, G. (1996). Convergence Revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(2): 249-265.
  • Filiztekin, A. 1998. Convergence across Industries and Provinces in Turkey. Koç University Working Paper No: 1998/08. http://myweb.sabanciuniv.edu/ alpayf/files/2010/04/turkconv98.pdf . Accessed: December 2015.
  • Fingleton, B. and Lopez-Bazo, E. (2006). Empirical Growth Models with Spatial Effects. Papers in Regional Science, 85(2): 177-198.
  • Frantzen, D. (2004). Technological Diffusion and Productivity Convergence: A Study for Manufacturing in the OECD. Southern Economic Journal, 71(2): 352-376.
  • Gezici, F. and Hewings, G.J.D. (2004). Regional Convergence and the Economic Performance of Peripheral Areas in Turkey. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 16(2): 113-132.
  • Grier, K.B. and Tullock, G. (1989). An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951-80. Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(2): 259-276.
  • Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust Standart Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-Sectional Dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3): 281-312.
  • Islam, N. (1995). Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4): 1127-1170.
  • Kant, C. (2019). Income Convergence and the Catch-Up Index. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48, 613- 627.
  • Karaca, O. (2004). Türkiye'de Bölgeler arası Gelir Farklılıkları: Yakınsama Var mı?. Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper No:2004/7. http:// www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/83269/1/dp_2004-07.pdf . Accessed: January 2016.
  • Kılıçaslan, Y. and Özatağan, G. (2007). Impact of Relative Population Change on Regional Income Convergence: Evidence from Turkey. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 19(3): 210-223.
  • Le Gallo, J. and Ertur, C. (2003). Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis of the Distribution of Regional Per Capita GDP in Europe, 1980-1995. Papers in Regional Science, 82: 175-201.
  • Lesage, J.P. (2014). What Regional Scientists Need to Know About Spatial Econometrics?. SSRN Electronic Journal, 44(1):13- 32.
  • Lesage, J.P. and Pace, R.K. (2014). The Biggest Myth in Spatial Econometrics. Econometrics, 2: 217-249.
  • Lopez-Bazo, E., Vaya, E., Mora, A.J., and Surinach, J. (1999). Regional Economic Dynamics and Convergence in the European Union. The Annals of Regional Science, 33(3): 343-370.
  • Lopez-Bazo, E., Vaya, E., and Artis, M. (2004). Regional Externalities and Growth: Evidence from European Regions. Journal of Regional Science, 44(1): 43-73.
  • Mahmood, T. (2012). Labor Productivity Convergence in 52 Industries: A Panel Data Analysis of Some European Countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3): 320-339.
  • Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D., and Weil, D.N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 407-437.
  • O'Brian, R.M. (2007). A Caution Regarding Rules of Thumb for Variance Inflation Factors. Quality & Quantity, 41(5): 673-690.
  • Önder, A.Ö., Deliktaş, E., and Karadağ, M. (2010). The Impact of Public Capital Stock on Regional Convergence in Turkey. European Planning Studies, 18(7): 1041-1055.
  • Özgül, S. and Karadağ, M. (2015). Regional Convergence in Turkey Regarding Welfare Indicators. Sosyoekonomi, 23(24): 38- 50.
  • Piras, G. and Arbia, G. (2007). Convergence in Per-Capita GDP Across EU-NUTS 2 Regions Using Panel Data Models Extended to Spatial Autocorrelations Effects. Statistika, 67(2): 157-172.
  • Quah, D. (1993). Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95(4): 427-443.
  • Reed, W.R., and Ye, H. (2011). Which Panel Data Estimator Should I Use?. Applied Economics, 43(8): 985-1000.
  • Rey, S.J., and Montouri, B.D. (1999). US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective. Regional Studies, 33(2): 143-156.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X. (1996a). Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence. European Economic Review, 40(6): 1325-1352.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X. (1996b). The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis. The Economic Journal, 106(437): 1019-1036.
  • Shumway, J. M. and Otterstrom, S. M. (2015). Income Migration and Income Convergence across U.S. States, 1995-2010. Growth and Change, 46 (4), 593-610.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1): 65-94.
  • Stakhovych, S. and Bijmolt, T.H.A (2008). Specification of Spatial Models: A Simulation Study on Weight Matrices. Papers in Regional Science, 88(2): 389-408.
  • Temel, T., Tansel, A., and Albersen, P.J. (1999). Convergence and Spatial Patterns in Labor Productivity: Nonparametric estimations for Turkey. The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 29(1): 3-19.
  • Temel, T., Tansel, A., and Güngor, N.D. (2005). Convergence of Sectoral Productivity in Turkish Provinces: Markov Chains Model. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2(2): 65-98.
  • Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges. (2013). Turkish Agriculture Report. Ankara.
  • Ulusoy, V. and Yalçın, E. (2011). Convergence of Productivity Levels Among the EU Countries: Evidence from a Panel of Industries. Australian Economic Papers, 50(2-3): 98-114.
  • Yıldırım, J. 2005. Regional Policy and Economic Convergence in Turkey: A Spatial Data Analysis. 18th European Advanced Studies, Institute in Regional Science, Poland. http://www.wz.uni.lodz.pl/ersa/abstr/yildirim _p.pdf . Accessed: December 2015.
  • Yıldırım, J. and Öcal , N. (2006) Income Inequality and Economic Convergence in Turkey. Transition Studies Review 13(3): 559- 568.
  • Yıldırım, J., Öcal, N., and Özyıldırım, S. (2008). Income Inequality and Economic Convergence in Turkey: A Spatial Effect Analysis. International Regional Science Review, 32(2): 221-254.
  • Zeren, F. and Yılancı, V. (2011). Türkiye'de Bölgeler Arası Gelir Yakınsaması: Rassal Katsayılı Panel Veri Analizi Uygulaması. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2 (1): 143-151.
APA ÇINAR İ, SAGDIC E (2020). Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. , 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
Chicago ÇINAR İBRAHİM TUĞRUL,SAGDIC Ersin Nail Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. (2020): 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
MLA ÇINAR İBRAHİM TUĞRUL,SAGDIC Ersin Nail Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. , 2020, ss.51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
AMA ÇINAR İ,SAGDIC E Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. . 2020; 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
Vancouver ÇINAR İ,SAGDIC E Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. . 2020; 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
IEEE ÇINAR İ,SAGDIC E "Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach." , ss.51 - 61, 2020. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
ISNAD ÇINAR, İBRAHİM TUĞRUL - SAGDIC, Ersin Nail. "Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach". (2020), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.671254
APA ÇINAR İ, SAGDIC E (2020). Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, 26(1), 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
Chicago ÇINAR İBRAHİM TUĞRUL,SAGDIC Ersin Nail Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi 26, no.1 (2020): 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
MLA ÇINAR İBRAHİM TUĞRUL,SAGDIC Ersin Nail Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, vol.26, no.1, 2020, ss.51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
AMA ÇINAR İ,SAGDIC E Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi. 2020; 26(1): 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
Vancouver ÇINAR İ,SAGDIC E Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi. 2020; 26(1): 51 - 61. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
IEEE ÇINAR İ,SAGDIC E "Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach." Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, 26, ss.51 - 61, 2020. 10.24181/tarekoder.671254
ISNAD ÇINAR, İBRAHİM TUĞRUL - SAGDIC, Ersin Nail. "Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach". Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi 26/1 (2020), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.671254