TY  - JOUR
TI  - Climate change impact assessment under data scarcity by hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling in Izmit Bay/Turkey
AB  - To assess climate change impact on the hydrology of Izmit Bay, a coupled model chain using the results of fourcombinations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and consisting two hydrologicalmodels (mGROWA and PROMET) and one hydrodynamic model (MIKE 3HD) was established. Climate model data ofthe 4 GCM-RCM combinations were applied to both hydrological models. The resulting 8 streamflow data of thehydrological models were then applied to the MIKE 3HD to assess possible hydrodynamic situations in Izmit Bay.Related model results indicate a range of possible future streamflow regimes suitable for the analysis of climatechange impact on Izmit Bay. In order to evaluate the effects of the hydrological changes only on the bay, the bay wasconsidered as closed in terms of hydrodynamics. There is a clear indication that the climate change induced impactson streamflow may influence the sea level in the Bay to a minor extent. However, climate change induced waterexchange processes in the Bay may have a much bigger influence. Hence, it is suggested that further simulationsshould be run once the hydrologic regime of the Marmara Sea has been assessed in a broader macro-scale study.
AU  - Herrmann, Frank
AU  - Onkal Engin, Guleda
AU  - Wendland, Frank
AU  - Çelen, Meltem
AU  - Klug, Philipp
AU  - Bach, Heike
AU  - Adiller, Ahmet
DO  - 10.35208/ert.777323
PY  - 2021
JO  - Environmental Research & Technology
VL  - 4
IS  - 1
SN  - 2636-8498
SP  - 1
EP  - 17
DB  - TRDizin
UR  - http://search/yayin/detay/433262
ER  -