ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL
Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 63 - 78 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL
Öz: In the present study, financial ratios that belong to 139 manufacturing companies that have been quoted on BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange) during 2017 have been used, the factors that lead to financial failure and bankruptcy have been determined with the generalized ordered logit model. By courtesy of the Altman-Z score model, ordinal levels of the dependent variable have been scaled. Thus, a model that could warn companies like an early warning system and forecast potential financial failure have been suggested. Independent variables have been obtained from the financial ratios which had been taken from the financial statements of the companies. As the estimated ordered logit model has violated the parallel lines assumption, by taking the ordinal nature of the variable dependent into account it has been analyzed with a generalized ordered logit model which relaxes the parallel lines assumption and has been interpreted according to the marginal effects of the model. According to analysis results, an increase in ratios of operating profit margin, asset turnover, net profit margin, and acid-test increases the probability of the company being in a safe zone. Meanwhile, an increase in the financial leverage ratio decreases that probability.
Anahtar Kelime: Finansal Başarısızlık ve İflası Etkileyen Faktörlerin Genelleştirilmiş Sıralı Logit Modeli ile Analizi
Öz: Bu çalışmada, 2017 yılı içinde BİST (Borsa İstanbul)’ te kote edilen 139 tane imalat sanayi şirketine ait finansal oranlar kullanılmış, finansal başarısızlık ve iflasa yol açan faktörler genelleştirilmiş sıralı logit modeli ile belirlenmiştir. Altman-Z skor yöntemi sayesinde, bağımlı değişkenin sıralı düzeyleri ölçeklendirilmiştir. Bu nedenle erken uyarı sistemi gibi şirketleri uyarabilen ve ortaya çıkabilecek finansal başarısızlığı tahmin edebilen bir model önerilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenler ise, şirketlerin finansal ve mali tablolarından alınan finansal oranlardan elde edilmiştir. Tahminlenen sıralı logit modeli paralellik varsayımını ihlal ettiğinden dolayı, bağımlı değişkenin sıralı yapısı dikkate alınarak, paralellik varsayımını rahatlatan bir model olan genelleştirilmiş sıralı logit modeli ile analiz edilmiş ve modelin marjinal etkilerine göre yorumlamalar yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, faaliyet kâr marjı, aktif devir hızı, net kâr marjı, asit-test oranlarında meydana gelecek bir artış şirketin güvenli bölgede olma olasılığını arttırmaktadır. Aynı zamanda, finansal kaldıraç oranında meydana gelecek bir artışta şirketin güvenli bölgede olma olasılığını azaltmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelime: Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | Van M, SEHRIBANOGLU S, VAN M (2021). ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. , 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| Chicago | Van Münevver Günay,SEHRIBANOGLU Sanem,VAN MUHAMMED HANIFI ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. (2021): 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| MLA | Van Münevver Günay,SEHRIBANOGLU Sanem,VAN MUHAMMED HANIFI ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. , 2021, ss.63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| AMA | Van M,SEHRIBANOGLU S,VAN M ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. . 2021; 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| Vancouver | Van M,SEHRIBANOGLU S,VAN M ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. . 2021; 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| IEEE | Van M,SEHRIBANOGLU S,VAN M "ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL." , ss.63 - 78, 2021. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| ISNAD | Van, Münevver Günay vd. "ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL". (2021), 63-78. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| APA | Van M, SEHRIBANOGLU S, VAN M (2021). ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 17(1), 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| Chicago | Van Münevver Günay,SEHRIBANOGLU Sanem,VAN MUHAMMED HANIFI ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi 17, no.1 (2021): 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| MLA | Van Münevver Günay,SEHRIBANOGLU Sanem,VAN MUHAMMED HANIFI ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, vol.17, no.1, 2021, ss.63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| AMA | Van M,SEHRIBANOGLU S,VAN M ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi. 2021; 17(1): 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| Vancouver | Van M,SEHRIBANOGLU S,VAN M ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi. 2021; 17(1): 63 - 78. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| IEEE | Van M,SEHRIBANOGLU S,VAN M "ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL." Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 17, ss.63 - 78, 2021. 10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
| ISNAD | Van, Münevver Günay vd. "ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL". Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi 17/1 (2021), 63-78. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.803957 |
