TY  - JOUR
TI  - LINEAR PROFILE MONITORING ADAPTED TO CONSTRUCT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN ECONOMICS: A PILOT STUDY FROM ENERGY SECTOR
AB  - In this study, control charts for monitoring linear profiles are adopted to early warning system (EWS) to see if global crisescan be detected before they occur so that preventive actions can be taken by the policy makers. For this purpose, the relationbetween the annual gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption of G8 and big emerging countries through theyears 1980-2012 is observed. Phase I analysis indicated that the model parameters are autocorrelated through time. Thus,the Shewhart and EWMA charts for linear profile monitoring are adopted to take this into account and found that EWMA isbetter. It is seen that the 2008 global crisis can be detected whereas relatively local Asian crisis cannot. This is the first studythat integrates linear profile monitoring schemes to EWS and that takes into account the correlation among profiles withdifferent explanatory variables (x-values) for each profile.
AU  - Yüksel Haliloğlu, Ebru
AU  - TÜRKER BAYRAK, Özlem
AU  - Aytaçoğlu, Burcu
DO  - 10.30794/pausbed.409482
PY  - 2019
JO  - Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi
VL  - 0
IS  - 34
SN  - 1308-2922
SP  - 47
EP  - 55
DB  - TRDizin
UR  - http://search/yayin/detay/458046
ER  -