Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi

Altuntas, Serkan; MUTLU, Nazlı Gulum

doi:10.17341/gazimmfd.815361

Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi

Nazlı Gülüm Mutlu, (Bingöl Üniversitesi, Sağlık Bilimleri Fakültesi, İş Sağlığı ve Güvenliği Bölümü, Bingöl, Türkiye)

Serkan Altuntaş (Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, Makine Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 36 Sayı: 4 Sayfa Aralığı: 1875 - 1892 Metin Dili: Türkçe DOI: 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361 İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi

Öz:

Teknoloji değişimlerinin izlnemesi, karar vericiler için üretim sistemlerinde verimlilik ve etkinliği sağlayacak sistemleri tanımalarını sağlamaktadır. Bu nedenle, pratikte teknolojik gelişmeleri takip etmek çok önemli hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, istatistiksel kontrol grafiklerini kullanarak iş sağlığı ve güvenliği alanındaki güvenlik teknolojilerinin gelişimini takip etmektir. Bu amaçla, güvenlik teknolojileri ile ilgili patent verileri, istatistiksel kontrol grafiklerinden I-MR grafiğini (individual moving range) oluşturmak için kullanılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, zaman serisi analizi de yürütülmüştür. Bu çalışmada, iş sağlığı ve güvenliği (İSG) alanındaki güvenlik teknolojilerine odaklanan çalışma sayısı son derece sınırlı düzeyde olup çalışmanın özgün yönünü oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre, tek bir teknoloji tahmin modelinin uzun vadeli kullanılması yanıltıcı olduğunu göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte, en uygun tahminmodeli 1947 ile 1988 ve 1988 ile 2012 dönemleri için tek üstel düzleştirme modelidir (single exponential smoothing “with optimal ARIMA parameters”).2011 ile 2018 dönemi için ise en uygun modeli ikinci dereceden zaman serisi modeli (the quadratic time series model) en uygun modeldir.

Anahtar Kelime: İstatistiksel kontrol grafikleri I-MR kontrol grafiği patent analizi

Monitoring technological changes with statistical control charts based on patent data

Öz:

Technology forecasting constitutes the basis of technology development and investment in technology. In a dynamic environment where technology is rapidly evolving and growing, the need to check the availability of a single prediction model has become an important research topic. The aim of this study is to follow the development of safety technologies in the field of occupational health and safety by using statistical quality control charts. Expanding the I-MR control chart rules used in monitoring the reliability of the technology forecasting model and considering the safety technologies in the field of occupational health and safety (OHS), which were previously discussed in the literature, are the original aspects of the study. At the beginning of the study, 91,580 patent data, was anlaysed using the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) database during including 1942-2020 (December) period. Time series modeling is performed using patent data on safety technologies, and I-MR graph is created using residual values of the model. The reliability of the model is monitored by controlling significant deviations with the obtained I-MR graphics. In addition, an S-curve is created for the patent numbers. The results of this study show that using a single technology forecasting model for a long period of time is misleading. Additionally, the forecast model for the period between 1942 and 2020 should be updated in various periods. Occupational health and safety technologies are an emerging technology field and appear to be incentives for policy makers and safety engineers to allocate resources.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	MUTLU N, Altuntas S (2021). Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. , 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
Chicago	MUTLU Nazlı Gulum,Altuntas Serkan Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. (2021): 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
MLA	MUTLU Nazlı Gulum,Altuntas Serkan Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. , 2021, ss.1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
AMA	MUTLU N,Altuntas S Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. . 2021; 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
Vancouver	MUTLU N,Altuntas S Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. . 2021; 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
IEEE	MUTLU N,Altuntas S "Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi." , ss.1875 - 1892, 2021. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
ISNAD	MUTLU, Nazlı Gulum - Altuntas, Serkan. "Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi". (2021), 1875-1892. https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.815361

APA	MUTLU N, Altuntas S (2021). Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 36(4), 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
Chicago	MUTLU Nazlı Gulum,Altuntas Serkan Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi 36, no.4 (2021): 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
MLA	MUTLU Nazlı Gulum,Altuntas Serkan Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.36, no.4, 2021, ss.1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
AMA	MUTLU N,Altuntas S Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi. 2021; 36(4): 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
Vancouver	MUTLU N,Altuntas S Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi. 2021; 36(4): 1875 - 1892. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
IEEE	MUTLU N,Altuntas S "Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi." Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, ss.1875 - 1892, 2021. 10.17341/gazimmfd.815361
ISNAD	MUTLU, Nazlı Gulum - Altuntas, Serkan. "Teknolojik değişimlerin patent verilerine dayalı istatistiksel kontrol grafikleri ile izlenmesi". Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi 36/4 (2021), 1875-1892. https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.815361