TY  - JOUR
TI  - Forecasting of Natural Honey Yield in Turkey through ARIMA Model
AB  - Agricultural forecasting is an essential element of country's planning and sustainable economic
growth. Honey is a strategic product for Turkey. Although there has been an increase in the number of hives in
recent years, there has been a decrease in natural honey yield in Turkey. The purpose of this article is to estimate
the natural honey yield for the next decade. In this study, it was estimated with the Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) model by using annual data between 1961-2019. Forecasting was made with ARIMA
model (7, 1, 1), which is the most suitable model. According to the forecasting results, it was calculated that the
honey yield increase rate would be an average of 0.82% per year. 'Honey Forest Action Plans' were prepared in
2018-2023 to increase honey production and yield in Turkey. With this plan taking full action, there may be a
greater increase than expected honey yield. In addition, it is very important to protect bees' natural habitats and
the environment for sustainable honey production. As a result, it may be suggested to minimize environmental
factors that cause low honey yield for sustainable production.
AU  - KARAKAS, GUNGOR
DO  - 10.13002/jafag4777
PY  - 2021
JO  - Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi
VL  - 38
IS  - 3
SN  - 1300-2910
SP  - 166
EP  - 172
DB  - TRDizin
UR  - http://search/yayin/detay/513592
ER  -