TY  - JOUR
TI  - Analysis of HIV Infection in Cyprus Using
a Mathematical Model
AB  - Objective: The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has a high rate of human transit as a result of tourism, human trafficking,
and migration, which could contribute to the rate of HIV infection. The island is divided into 2 states – the northern portion
is mainly populated by Turkish-Cypriots, and the southern portion is populated by Greek-Cypriots. The aim of this study was
to assess the dynamics of HIV infection in both segments of Cyprus using a mathematical model.
Materials and Methods: Data of HIV-positive individuals diagnosed during the period 1997–2018 in northern Cyprus
were obtained from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ministry of Health database, yielding a total of 129 cases, and
data for the southern region, the Republic of Cyprus, were retrieved from a European Centre for Disease Prevention and
Control (ECDC) 2013 report and ECDC/World Health Organization 2017 data. The total number of reported HIV infections was 1057. A mathematical model was used to evaluate the current and future HIV infection rate.
Results: Stability analysis of the equilibrium point – disease-free or endemic – was conducted using the Lyapunov function. The
basic reproduction number, represented as R0, is a measure of the potential for disease spread and serves as a threshold for
stability. The R0 value was 0.83 in northern Cyprus and 0.040 in southern Cyprus. An R0 indicated a disease-free equilibrium.
Conclusion: The calculations suggest that there is no current HIV epidemic on either part of the island; however, the model
predicted a significant increase in the near future.
AU  - Kaymakamzade, Bilgen
AU  - SAAD, FAROUK
AU  - Hıncal, Evren
AU  - SAYAN, MURAT
AU  - süer, kaya
AU  - Sanlidag, Tamer
AU  - Sultanoglu, Nazife
DO  - 10.14744/etd.2021.32855
PY  - 2022
JO  - Erciyes Medical Journal
VL  - 44
IS  - 1
SN  - 2149-2247
SP  - 63
EP  - 67
DB  - TRDizin
UR  - http://search/yayin/detay/521942
ER  -