Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy

Korap, Levent; SAATCİOĞLU, CEM

Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy

Cem SAATCİOĞLU, (İstanbul Üniversitesi, Ekonomi Fakültesi, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Levent KORAP (Marmara Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi

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Yıl: 2008 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 207 - 216 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy

Öz:

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için bir rezerv para talebi modeli oluşturulmaya çalışılmaktadır. Üçer aylık gözlemleri dikkate alan 1987Q1-2007Q3 inceleme dönemi için çağdaş çok değişkenli eş-bütünleşim yöntemi kullanılarak elde ettiğimiz bulgular para talebinin reel gelir esnekliğinin birim değerden oldukça yüksek olduğunu göstermekte ve ekonomide reel gelir sürecindeki artışla ilgili olarak süregelmekte olan parasallaşma olgusunun varlığını ifade etmektedir. Reel para tutumları karşısındaki en önemli almaşık maliyet unsuru yerli paranın döviz kuru karşısındaki beklenen değer kaybı olarak gözükmektedir. Bu tür bir bulguysa iktisadi birimler parasal büyüklük tutumlarıyla ilgili güdülerini belirlerken ekonomide yerleşik para ikamesi olgusunun önemini ortya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, çalışmada elde edilen kritik bir bulgu para piyasası dengesizlik koşulları altında meydana gelen para talebi fazlası üzerine koşullandırılmış dinamik bir hata düzeltme modelini gereksiz kılacak bir şekilde yurtiçi enflasyonun para talebi değişken uzayında zayıf dışsal bir yapıya sahip olmasıdır.

Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat

Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Parasal Taban ve Enflasyon Modeli

Öz:

In this paper, a reserve money demand model is tried to be constructed for the Turkish economy. Using contemporaneous multivariate co-integration methodology for the investigation period 1987Q1-2007Q3 of the quarterly observations, we find that the real income elasticity of money demand is highly greater than unity which means that there exists an ongoing monetization process with regard to the increases in the real income in the economy. The most important alternative cost against the real money holdings seems to be the expected depreciation rate of the domestic currency against the exchange rate. Such a finding reveals the importance of currency substitution phenomenon dominated in the economy when the economic agents determine the motives of demand for monetary balances. Furthermore, a critical finding estimated in the paper is that domestic inflation has a weakly exogenous characteristic in the money demand variable space which requires no dynamic error correction model constructed on domestic inflation as a function of the excess money demand taken place under the money market disequilibrium conditions.

Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	SAATCİOĞLU C, Korap L (2008). Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. , 207 - 216.
Chicago	SAATCİOĞLU CEM,Korap Levent Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. (2008): 207 - 216.
MLA	SAATCİOĞLU CEM,Korap Levent Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. , 2008, ss.207 - 216.
AMA	SAATCİOĞLU C,Korap L Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. . 2008; 207 - 216.
Vancouver	SAATCİOĞLU C,Korap L Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. . 2008; 207 - 216.
IEEE	SAATCİOĞLU C,Korap L "Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy." , ss.207 - 216, 2008.
ISNAD	SAATCİOĞLU, CEM - Korap, Levent. "Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy". (2008), 207-216.

APA	SAATCİOĞLU C, Korap L (2008). Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9(2), 207 - 216.
Chicago	SAATCİOĞLU CEM,Korap Levent Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi 9, no.2 (2008): 207 - 216.
MLA	SAATCİOĞLU CEM,Korap Levent Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, vol.9, no.2, 2008, ss.207 - 216.
AMA	SAATCİOĞLU C,Korap L Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi. 2008; 9(2): 207 - 216.
Vancouver	SAATCİOĞLU C,Korap L Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi. 2008; 9(2): 207 - 216.
IEEE	SAATCİOĞLU C,Korap L "Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy." Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9, ss.207 - 216, 2008.
ISNAD	SAATCİOĞLU, CEM - Korap, Levent. "Modeling Base Money Demand and Inflation for the Turkish Economy". Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi 9/2 (2008), 207-216.