Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye
Yıl: 2022 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 6 Sayfa Aralığı: 733 - 737 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 İndeks Tarihi: 15-05-2023
Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye
Öz: Türkiye is the second-largest honey producer globally; however, the export of honey and bee products does not adequately support the beekeeping industry. Pests account for the largest share of expenditure for agents found in honeybees in the country. Although the Small Hive Beetle (SHB) has not been detected in Türkiye, a risk assessment was performed to determine what happens if it enters the country. The risk assessment included: a) hazard identification; b) risk pathway determination; c) risk assessment for entry via the identified pathways; and d) outcome assessment for becoming endemic in Türkiye. The Risk AMP add-in program was used to assess the probability of distribution for each method of entry, pathway, and simulation. According to the simulations, the probability of SHB introduction in Türkiye varies from 0.17 per 1000 events/days (1.7 per 10000 days or 27 years) to 0.6 per 1000 events/imports (6 per 10000 days or 27 years). The highest likelihood of introduction comes from fruit import (11/15) and soil/compost import (4/15). The mean probability of introducing SHB infestation after 1000 iterations of the constructed model is 0.37 per 1000 events/days (3.7 within 10000 days or 27 years). Finally, the simulated average cost of SHB after the possible introduction is 523 million US $ for Türkiye. With these simulated data, risk assessment of a non-detected pest, SHB, was determined for Türkiye.
Anahtar Kelime: Bal Arısında Küçük Kovan Kurdu Aethina tumida’nın Hipotetik Çalışması: Türkiye’ye Girişi İçin Riskler ve Olasılıklar
Öz: Türkiye, dünyanın en büyük ikinci bal üreticisidir. Fakat bal ve arı ürünleri ihracatı, arıcılık endüstrisini tam olarak destekleyememektedir. Ülkede bal arılarında bulunan etkenler için yapılan harcamalarda en büyük payı zararlılar oluşturmaktadır. Küçük Kovan Kurdu (Aethina tumida) (KKK) Türkiye’de bulunmamasına rağmen, bu çalışmada risk değerlendirmesi ve ülkeye girişi durumunda verebileceği ekonomik zarar değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır. Risk değerlendirme süreci birkaç aşamada gerçekleştirilmiştir: a) tehlikenin tanımlanması; b) risk yollarının belirlenmesi; c) tanımlanmış yollara giriş için riskin değerlendirilmesi, d) ekonomik zararın değerlendirilmesi ve e) hastalıkların Türkiye’ye girişinden sonra endemik hale gelme riskinin değerlendirilmesi. Bu amaçla, Excel için Risk AMP eklentisini kullanan bir elektronik tablo, benimsenen yollara göre her bir giriş yolu için olasılık dağılımı ile oluşturulmuş ve simülasyonlar Monte Carlo yöntemi kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Simülasyonlar için verilen varsayımlarla, Küçük Kovan Kurdunun Türkiye’ye giriş olasılık değeri, 1000 olay/gün için en düşük 0.17 (10.000 gün veya 27 yıl içinde 1.7) ile 1.000 olay/ithalat için en yüksek 0.6 (10.000 gün veya 27 yıl içinde 6) arasında değişmektedir. Giriş yolu olarak en yüksek olasılık meyve ithalatından (11/15), ikinci olarak toprak/kompost ithalatından (4/15) olabilecektir. Oluşturulan modelin 1000 yinelemesinden sonra KKK istilasının ortaya çıkma olasılığı ortalama 1.000 olay/gün başına 0.37’dir (10.000 gün veya 27 yılda 3.7). Son olarak, KKK’nun ülkeye girişinden sonra simüle edilmiş ortalama ekonomik zararı 523 milyon $ olarak bulunmuştur. Bu çalışmayla, Türkiye’de henüz görülmeyen KKK zararlısının, bulaşma risk olasılıkları ve ülkeye girişi halinde verebileceği ekonomik zararlar ortaya konmuştur.
Anahtar Kelime: Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | Girisgin A, Aydin L, Yörük Y (2022). Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. , 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| Chicago | Girisgin Ahmet Onur,Aydin Levent,Yörük Yunus Emre Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. (2022): 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| MLA | Girisgin Ahmet Onur,Aydin Levent,Yörük Yunus Emre Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. , 2022, ss.733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| AMA | Girisgin A,Aydin L,Yörük Y Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. . 2022; 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| Vancouver | Girisgin A,Aydin L,Yörük Y Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. . 2022; 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| IEEE | Girisgin A,Aydin L,Yörük Y "Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye." , ss.733 - 737, 2022. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| ISNAD | Girisgin, Ahmet Onur vd. "Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye". (2022), 733-737. https://doi.org/10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| APA | Girisgin A, Aydin L, Yörük Y (2022). Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, 28(6), 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| Chicago | Girisgin Ahmet Onur,Aydin Levent,Yörük Yunus Emre Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi 28, no.6 (2022): 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| MLA | Girisgin Ahmet Onur,Aydin Levent,Yörük Yunus Emre Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.28, no.6, 2022, ss.733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| AMA | Girisgin A,Aydin L,Yörük Y Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi. 2022; 28(6): 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| Vancouver | Girisgin A,Aydin L,Yörük Y Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye. Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi. 2022; 28(6): 733 - 737. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| IEEE | Girisgin A,Aydin L,Yörük Y "Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye." Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, 28, ss.733 - 737, 2022. 10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
| ISNAD | Girisgin, Ahmet Onur vd. "Hypothetical study of Small Hive Beetle Aethina tumida Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye". Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi 28/6 (2022), 733-737. https://doi.org/10.9775/kvfd.2022.28027 |
