Yıl: 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 475 - 485 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.29109/gujsc.1178375 İndeks Tarihi: 07-07-2023

Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19

Öz:
The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has done great damage to air transportation. Demand for airline transportation has declined for reasons such as quarantine practices by countries, curfews, the economic recession, and the transfer of meetings to digital platforms. This situation has also led to a change in individuals' preferences for air transport. The most noticeable change in air transport is the tendency of individuals to use air transport privately to minimize the health risks that face-to-face contact can pose. Individuals who avoid commercial air transport where public transportation is available have shifted to private airline transportation. For these reasons, a forecast study was conducted in this study so that a private airline could provide accurate flight schedules in the future. For the forecast study, the number of aircraft types for 2022 was determined by obtaining data on the number of aircraft by passenger capacity, the number of flights, and the number of passengers for 2019-2021 from the airline company. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Regression Trees, and Ensemble Learning models from machine learning methods were used for the forecasting study. The performance evaluation of the models used was compared. The model results with the highest performance evaluation were used. According to the results obtained, it has been found that there will be an increase of approximately 7% in the number of flights for 2022 compared to the pre- pandemic period. The findings provided important information for the company's future fleet planning.
Anahtar Kelime: Private Airline Transportation Fleet Type Planning Machine Learning SVM GPR Ensemble Learning Regression Trees

Covid-19 Sonrası Özel Havayolu Taşımacılığı İçin Filo Türü Planlaması

Öz:
COVID-19 salgınının küresel etkisi hava taşımacılığına büyük zarar vermiştir. Ülkelerin karantina uygulamaları, sokağa çıkma yasakları, ekonomik durgunluk, toplantıların dijital platformlara taşınması gibi nedenlerle havayolu taşımacılığına olan talep azalmıştır. Bu durum bireylerin hava taşımacılığına yönelik tercihlerinin de değişmesine neden olmuştur. Hava taşımacılığındaki en dikkat çekici değişim, bireylerin yüz yüze temasıyla oluşabilecek sağlık risklerini en aza indirmek için hava taşımacılığını özel olarak kullanma eğilimidir. Toplu taşımanın mevcut olduğu yerlerde ticari hava taşımacılığından kaçınan bireyler, özel havayolu taşımacılığına yönelmiştir. Bu nedenlerle, bu çalışmada özel bir havayolu şirketinin gelecekte doğru uçuş programları sağlayabilmesi için bir tahmin çalışması yapılmıştır. Tahmin çalışması için havayolu şirketinden 2019-2021 yılları için yolcu kapasitesine göre uçak sayısı, uçuş sayısı ve yolcu sayısı verileri temin edilerek 2022 yılı için uçak tipi sayısı belirlenmiştir. Tahmin çalışması için makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinden Destek Vektör Makineleri (DVM), Gauss Süreç Regresyonu (GSR), Regresyon Ağaçları ve Topluluk Öğrenme modelleri kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan modellerin performans değerlendirmesi karşılaştırılmıştır. En yüksek performans değerlendirmesine sahip model sonuçları kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre 2022 yılı için uçuş sayılarında pandemi öncesi döneme göre yaklaşık %7'lik bir artış olacağı tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, şirketin gelecekteki filo planlaması için önemli bilgiler sağlamıştır.
Anahtar Kelime: Özel Havayolu Taşımacılığı Filo Türü Planlama Makine Öğrenmesi DVM GSR Topluluk Öğrenme Regresyon Ağaçları

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA KILIÇ R, ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö, Erkayman B (2023). Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. , 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
Chicago KILIÇ Raziye,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Özge,Erkayman Burak Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. (2023): 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
MLA KILIÇ Raziye,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Özge,Erkayman Burak Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. , 2023, ss.475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
AMA KILIÇ R,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö,Erkayman B Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. . 2023; 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
Vancouver KILIÇ R,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö,Erkayman B Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. . 2023; 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
IEEE KILIÇ R,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö,Erkayman B "Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19." , ss.475 - 485, 2023. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
ISNAD KILIÇ, Raziye vd. "Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19". (2023), 475-485. https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.1178375
APA KILIÇ R, ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö, Erkayman B (2023). Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji, 11(2), 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
Chicago KILIÇ Raziye,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Özge,Erkayman Burak Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji 11, no.2 (2023): 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
MLA KILIÇ Raziye,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Özge,Erkayman Burak Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji, vol.11, no.2, 2023, ss.475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
AMA KILIÇ R,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö,Erkayman B Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji. 2023; 11(2): 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
Vancouver KILIÇ R,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö,Erkayman B Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji. 2023; 11(2): 475 - 485. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
IEEE KILIÇ R,ALBAYRAK ÜNAL Ö,Erkayman B "Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19." Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji, 11, ss.475 - 485, 2023. 10.29109/gujsc.1178375
ISNAD KILIÇ, Raziye vd. "Fleet Type Planning for Private Airline Transportation After Covid-19". Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji 11/2 (2023), 475-485. https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.1178375