Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3 Sayfa Aralığı: 1369 - 1393 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.805079 İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Öz:
Share of government expenditures in the GDPs are increasing virtually everywhere. Available data for developed countries indicate that the beginnings of this upward trend date back to the mid-19th century. Interestingly, economic growth rates did not increase significantly over time despite the increases in government expenditures. Low income countries today spend more than the double of what today’s developed economies were spending on average in 1900. However, this is not helping them to converge to richer economies. Why are government expenditures increasing then? This question might have global pertinence but due to the variety of country-specific factors, it can be best studied on a single country level. In this article, the country of focal interest is Turkey. Five important variables that might affect government expenditures from different angles are evaluated regarding their contributions to the out-of-sample predictions of government expenditures using random forest methodology. Military expenditures are estimated as primarily important for determining the government expenditures in Turkey in the last fifty years, while tax collections happened to be the second most important factor affecting the ups and downs of government expenditures around a time-varying average line. Per capita income, urbanization and inflation also affect government expenditures in various ways.
Anahtar Kelime: machine learning, government expenditures, random forests.

BÜYÜMEYE DÖNÜŞMEYEN KAMU HARCAMALARI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz:
Kamu harcamalarının GSYH içerisindeki payı hemen hemen dünyanın her yanında artış göstermektedir. Gelişmiş ülkeler için elde var olan veriler, sözkonusu artış trendinin 19.yy'ın ortalarından beri devam ettiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Daha ilginç olan ise, devlet harcamalarındaki artış trendine rağmen ekonomik büyüme oranlarının zaman içerisinde anlamlı bir artış kaydetmemiş olmasıdır. Örneğin, günümüzdeki en fakir ülkeler gelişmiş ülkelerin 1900'ların başında GSYH'ya oranla harcadığının iki katından fazla kamu harcaması yapmaktaysa da bu onların düşük gelirli seviyeden daha yüksek seviyelere geçiş yapmalarına yetmemektedir. Bu durumda kamu harcamalarının neden artış gösterdiği ilginç bir soru olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ancak küresel ölçekte değer taşıyan bu soru ne yazık ki her ülkenin kendine özgü şartları düşünüldüğünde ülkeler bazında çalışılması gereken bir konudur. Çalışmada bu soruya Türkiye örneği üzerinde yoğunlaşılmıştır. Rassal orman metodu denen yöntemle kamu harcamalarına farklı açılardan etki edebilecek beş önemli değişken örneklemdışı tahmin performansları dikkate alınarak değerlendirilmiştir. Neticede Türkiye'de son elli yılda askeri harcamaların kamu harcamalarını artıran en önemli unsurlardan olduğu, ikinci olarak toplanan vergilerin de kamu harcamalarında ortalamaya göre artış ya da azalışları belirleyen nitelikte olduğu ortaya çıkartılmıştır. Bunlardan başka, kişi başına gelir, şehirleşme ve enflasyon da çeşitli şekillerde kamu harcamalarını etkilemektedir.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA Söylemez A, Zülfüoğlu Ö (2021). GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. , 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
Chicago Söylemez Arif Orçun,Zülfüoğlu Özkan GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. (2021): 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
MLA Söylemez Arif Orçun,Zülfüoğlu Özkan GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. , 2021, ss.1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
AMA Söylemez A,Zülfüoğlu Ö GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. . 2021; 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
Vancouver Söylemez A,Zülfüoğlu Ö GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. . 2021; 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
IEEE Söylemez A,Zülfüoğlu Ö "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY." , ss.1369 - 1393, 2021. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
ISNAD Söylemez, Arif Orçun - Zülfüoğlu, Özkan. "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY". (2021), 1369-1393. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.805079
APA Söylemez A, Zülfüoğlu Ö (2021). GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
Chicago Söylemez Arif Orçun,Zülfüoğlu Özkan GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8, no.3 (2021): 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
MLA Söylemez Arif Orçun,Zülfüoğlu Özkan GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.8, no.3, 2021, ss.1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
AMA Söylemez A,Zülfüoğlu Ö GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2021; 8(3): 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
Vancouver Söylemez A,Zülfüoğlu Ö GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2021; 8(3): 1369 - 1393. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
IEEE Söylemez A,Zülfüoğlu Ö "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY." Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8, ss.1369 - 1393, 2021. 10.30798/makuiibf.805079
ISNAD Söylemez, Arif Orçun - Zülfüoğlu, Özkan. "GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY". Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8/3 (2021), 1369-1393. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.805079