Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)

Topal, Mehmet Hanefi

Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)

Mehmet Hanefi TOPAL (Gümüşhane Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, Maliye Bölümü, Gümüşhane, Türkiye)

Maliye Dergisi

9 1

Yıl: 2018 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 174 Sayfa Aralığı: 175 - 202 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 22-07-2019

Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)

Öz:

Türkiye’de askeri harcama-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi üzerine çok sayıdaçalışma yapılmıştır. Bununla beraber daha önceki çalışmaların sonuçlarıfikir birliği sağlamaktan uzaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı 1960-2016 dönemiiçin askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyieşbütünleşme ve nedensellik bağlamında yeniden araştırmaktır.Araştırmada, geleneksel analizlere ilave olarak çoklu yapısal kırılmalıeşbütünleşme ve zamanla değişen nedensellik analizleri de uygulanmıştır.Bayer ve Hanck (2013) standart güçlü eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göreaskeri harcamalar uzun dönem kişi başı milli geliri negatif yöndeetkilemektedir. Bununla beraber Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalıeşbütünleşme testi sonuçları askeri harcamalar ile kişi başı milli gelirarasında anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığını göstermektedir. Öte yandan zamanladeğişen nedensellik analizi sonuçları ekonomik ve politik gelişmelernedeniyle 1970’li yılların ortalarından itibaren Türkiye’de askeri harcamaekonomikbüyüme bağının ortadan kalktığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İş Siyasi Bilimler İşletme İktisat İşletme Finans Uluslararası İlişkiler

An Analysis of Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Turkey (1960-2016)

Öz:

A growth number of empirical studies have investigated the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in Turkey. However, there is no consensus on the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in literature. The aim of this study is re-examining the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth covering the period of 1960 and 2016 within the context of cointegration and causality analysis. In addition to traditional analysis, we employed cointegration test with multi structural breaks and time-varying causality analysis. According toBayer and Hanck’s (2013) standart cointegration test results the military expenditures negatively affect long-run GDP per capita. However, Maki’s (2012) cointegration test with multiple breaks results show that there is no relationship between military expenditıres and GDP per capita. On the other hand, time-varying causality results also indicate that the causal linkage between military expenditures and economic growth has disappeared due to economic and politic shifts in Turkey after the middle of 1970s.

Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İş Siyasi Bilimler İşletme İktisat İşletme Finans Uluslararası İlişkiler

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

Abu-Bader, S. ve Abu-Qarn, A.S. (2003), “Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence From Egypt, Israel, and Syria”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6), 567-583.
Aizenman, J. ve Glick. R. (2006), “Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth”, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 15(2), 129-155.
Alper, A.E. (2017), “The Impact of Defense, Health and Education Expenditures on Economic Growth in Turkey”, Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 59-70.
Antonakis, N. (1999), “Guns Versus Butter: A Multisectoral Approach to Military Expenditure and Growth with Evidence from Greece, 1960- 1993”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(4), 501-520.
Ateşoğlu, H.S. (2002), “Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in The United States- Evidence From Cointegration Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13(1), 55–60.
Augier, M., Mcnab, R., Guo, J. ve Karber, P. (2017), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Evidence from China, 1952-2012”, Defence and Peace Economics 28(1), 65-90.
Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. ve Mestre, R. (1998), “Error-Correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.
Barro, R.J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-125.
Bayer, C. ve Hanck, C. (2013), “Combining Non‐Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34(1), 83-95.
Benoit, E. (1978), “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
Biswas, B. ve Ram. R. (1986), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
Boswijk, H.P. (1994), “Testing for an Unstable Root in Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 63(1), 37-60.
Canbay, Ş. ve Mercan, D. (2017), “Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari İşlemler Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 2(2), 86-104.
Candar, Ö. (2003), Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Turkey. Doctoral Dissertation, Bilkent University The Department of Management, Ankara.
Chang, T., Fang, W., Wen, L.F. ve Liu, C. (2001), “Defence Spending, Economic Growth and Temporal Causality: Evidence from Taiwan and Mainland China, 1952-1995”, Applied Economics, 33(10), 1289-1299.
Chang, H.C., Huang, B.N. ve Yang, C.W. (2011), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth Across Different Groups: A Dynamic Panel Granger- Causality Approach”, Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2416-2423.
Compton, R.A. ve Paterson, B. (2016), “Military Spending and Growth: The Role of Institutions”, Defence and Peace Economics, 27(3), 301-322.
Çevik, S. ve Ricco, J. (2017), “No Buck for the Bang: Revisiting the Military-Growth Nexus”, Empirica, 1-15, DOI: 10.1007/S10663-017- 9380-8.
Deger, S. (1986), Military Expenditure in Third World Countries: The Economic Effects, London: Taylor ve Francis.
Destek, M.A. ve Okumuş, I. (2016), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in BRICS and MIST Countries: Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis”, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 14(2), 175-186.
Dritsakis, N. (2004), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Greece and Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(2), 249-264.
Dunne, J.P. (1990), “The Political Economy of Military Expenditure: An Introduction”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4), 395-404.
Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. ve Vougas, D. (2001), “Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26.
Dunne, J.P., Smith, R.P. ve Willenbockel, D. (2005), “Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449-461.
Dunne, J.P. ve Smith, R.P. (2010), “Military Expenditure and Granger Causality: A Critical Review”, Defence and Peace Economics, 21(5-6), 427-441.
Dunne, J.P. ve Nikolaidou, E. (2012), “Defence Spending and Economic Growth in The EU15”, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
Dunne, J.P. ve Tian, N. (2013), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Survey”, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 8(1), 5-11.
Dunne, J.P. ve Tian, N. (2015), “Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity”, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15–31.
Durgun, Ö. ve Timur, M.C. (2017), “Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Analizi”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 54, 126-137.
Emmanoulidis, K. ve Karpetis, C. (2018), “The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1-18, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/ 10242694.2018.1428261.
Erbaykal, E. (2007), Türkiye'de Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi, Yayınlanmamış YL Tezi, Balıkesir Üniversitesi, İktisat ABD, Balıkesir.
Feder, G. (1983), “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics 12(1-2), 59–73.
Galvin, H. (2003), “The Impact of Defence Spending on the Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A Cross-Section Study”, Defence and Peace Economics, 14(1), 51-59.
Görkem, H. ve Işık, S. (2008), “Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki (1968-2006)”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2), 405-424.
Günlük Şenesen, G. (2002), Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Etkileri 1980-2001, İstanbul: TESEV Yayınları.
Hacker, R.S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006), “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”, Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
Halıcıoğlu, F. (2004), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: An Empirical Application of New Macroeconomic Theory”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2(3), 193-201.
Huang, C. ve Mintz, A. (1990), “Ridge Regression Analysis of the Defense- Growth Tradeoff in the United States”, Defence Economics, 2(1), 35-40.
Huang, C. ve Mintz, A. (1991), “Defence Expenditures and Economic Growth: The Externality Effect”, Defence Economics, 3(1), 35-40.
İpek, E. (2014). “Savunma Harcamalarının Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(3), 113-125.
Joerding, W. (1986), “Economic Growth and Defense Spending”, Journal of Development Economics, 21(1), 35-40.
Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1551-1580.
Jones, P.R. (1999), “Rent Seeking and Defence Expenditure”, Defence and Peace Economics, 10(2), 171-190.
Kalyoncu, H. ve Yücel, F. (2006), “An Analytical Approach on Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey and Greece”, Journal of Economic Studies, 33(5), 336-343.
Karagianni, S. ve Pempetzoglu, M. (2009), “Defense Spending and Economıc Growth in Turkey: A Linear and non-Linear Granger Causality Approach”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(2), 139-148.
Karagöl, E. ve Palaz, S. (2004), “Does Defence Expenditure Deter Economic Growth in Turkey? A Cointegration Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 15(3), 289-298.
Karahan-Türk, H. (2007), Türk Savunma Sanayinin Ekonomik Etkileri ve Savunma Harcamaları-Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Modellenmesi, Yayınlanmamış YL Tezi, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Adana.
Khalid, M.A. ve Noor, Z.M. (2015), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 31-39.
Kollias, C. (1997), “Defence Spending and Growth in Turkey 1954-1993: A Causal Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 189-204
Kollias, C. ve Paleologou, S.M. (2016), “Investment, Growth, and Defense Expenditure in The EU15: Revisiting the Nexus using SIPRI’s New Consistent Dataset”, Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 11(2), 28-37.
Korkmaz, Ö. ve Bilgin, T. (2017), “Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 18, 289-316.
Looney, R.E. (1989), “The Economic Impact of Rent Seeking and Military Expenditures: A Comparison of Third World Military and Civilian Regimes”, American Journal of Economics znd Sociology, 48(1), 11-29.
Maki, D. (2012), “Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D. ve Weil, D.N. (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437.
Narayan, P.K. ve Popp, S. (2010), “A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
Ozun, A. ve Erbaykal, E. (2011), Further Evidence on Defence Spending and Economic Growth in NATO Countries, Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series No.1119.
Öcal, N. (2002), “Asymmetric Effects of Military Expenditure Between Turkey and Greece”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13(5), 405-416.
Özdemir, D. ve Bayar, A. (2006), “The Impacts of Sectoral Demand for Military Expenditure on Peace Dividend: A Case for Turkey and Greece”, International Conference on Human and Economic Resources, İzmir, Turkey.
Özmucur, S. (1996), The Economics of Defence and Peace Dividend in Turkey, İstanbul: Bogazici University Printhouse.
Özsoy, O. (2000), “The Defence Growth Relation: Evidence from Turkey”, In The Economics of Regional Security: NATO, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Editors: J. Brauer and K. Hartley, Amsterdam: Harwood Academic, 139–159.
Özsoy, O. (2008), “Defence Spending and The Macroeconomy: The Case of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 19(3), 195-207.
Pan, C.I., Chang, T. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”, Defence and Peace Biometrika Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
Papanikos, G.T. (2015), “Military Spending, International Trade and Economic Growth in the Mediterranean Basin”, Athens Journal of Mediterranean Studies, 1(2), 187-194.
Pieroni, L. (2009), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4), 327-339.
Ram, R. (1986), “Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data”, The American Economic Review, 76(1), 191-203.
Romer, D. (2000), “Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14 (2), 149-170.
Sekmen, F. ve Sarıbaş, H. (2007), “Cointegration and Causality Among Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth and Level of Exchange Rate in Turkey”, The Empirical Economics Letter, 6(3), 193-203.
Sezgin, S. (1997), “Country Survey X: Defence Spending in Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 8(4), 381-409.
Sezgin, S. (2000a), “Defence Expenditures and Economic Growth in Turkey and Greece: A Cointegration Analysis”, Muğla Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 1(1), 1-12.
Sezgin, S. (2000b), “A Causal Analysis of Turkish Defence Growth Relationship: 1924-1996”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 55(2), 113-124.
Sezgin, S. (2001), An Empirical Analysis of Turkey’s Defense-Growth Relationship With a Multi Equation Model (1956-1994)”, Defence and Peace Economics, Special Issue on Economic Aspects of Defense in Turkey and Greece.
Smith, R.P. (1978), “Military Expenditure and Capitalism: A Reply”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2(3), 299-304.
Solow, R.M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
Soyyiğit-Kaya, S. (2013), “Türkiye'de Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Etkileri Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi (1970-2010)”, Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 17-38.
Stock, J.H. ve Watson, M.W. (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica: Journal of The Econometric Society, 61(4), 783-820.
Taş, S., Örnek, İ. ve Aksoğan, G. (2013), "Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları, Büyüme ve Gelir Eşitsizliği, 1970-2008: Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme", Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(3), 659-382.
Taylor, J.B. (2000), “Teaching Modern Macroeconomics at the Principles Level”, American Economic Review, 90(2), 90-94.
Tiwari, A.K. ve Tiwari, A.P. (2010), “Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence From India”, Journal of Cambridge Studies, 5 (2-3), 117-130.
Toda, H.Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66 (1-2), 225–250.
Topal, M.H. (2017), “Vergi Yapısının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: OECD Ülkelerinden Ampirik Bir Kanıt”, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 183-206.
Töngür, Ü. ve Elveren, A.Y. (2017), ”The Nexus of Economic Growth, Military Expenditures, and Income Inequality”, Quality ve Quantity, 51(4), 1821-1842.
Uçan, O., Öztürk, M.B. ve Akyıldız, A. (2016), “The Defence Spending- Growth Nexus in Turkey”, European Scientific Journal, 12(10), 53-60.
Üçler, G. (2011), Kamu Harcama Çeşitleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (1970-2009), Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Konya.
Yakovlev, P. (2007), “Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 18(4), 317-338.
Yılancı, V. ve Özcan, B. (2010), “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, CÜ İİBF Dergisi, 11(1), 21-33.
Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. ve Öcal, N. (2005), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.
Yıldırım, J. ve Öcal, N. (2016), “Military Expenditures, Economic Growth and Spatial Spillovers”, Defence and Peace Economics, 27(1), 87-104.
Yolcu-Karadam, D., Yıldırım, J. ve Öcal, N. (2017), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries and Turkey: A Non- Linear Panel Data Approach”, Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 719-730.
Zivot, E. ve Andrews, D.W.K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

APA	Topal M (2018). Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). , 175 - 202.
Chicago	Topal Mehmet Hanefi Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). (2018): 175 - 202.
MLA	Topal Mehmet Hanefi Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). , 2018, ss.175 - 202.
AMA	Topal M Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). . 2018; 175 - 202.
Vancouver	Topal M Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). . 2018; 175 - 202.
IEEE	Topal M "Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)." , ss.175 - 202, 2018.
ISNAD	Topal, Mehmet Hanefi. "Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)". (2018), 175-202.

APA	Topal M (2018). Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi, 0(174), 175 - 202.
Chicago	Topal Mehmet Hanefi Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi 0, no.174 (2018): 175 - 202.
MLA	Topal Mehmet Hanefi Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi, vol.0, no.174, 2018, ss.175 - 202.
AMA	Topal M Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi. 2018; 0(174): 175 - 202.
Vancouver	Topal M Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi. 2018; 0(174): 175 - 202.
IEEE	Topal M "Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)." Maliye Dergisi, 0, ss.175 - 202, 2018.
ISNAD	Topal, Mehmet Hanefi. "Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)". Maliye Dergisi 174 (2018), 175-202.